000 AGXX40 KNHC 050508 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM THU OCT 05 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG WESTERLIES N OF 35N TONIGHT ARE TRYING TO MAKE ENRODES S OF 30N ALONG 75W AND OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 35W. TWO STRONG RIDGES ARE ANCHORED OVER TX AND OVER THE MID ATLC NEAR 28N53W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TRPCL WAVES WERE ALONG 44W..53W AND 73W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A TROUGH WAS OVER THE BAHAMAS. LATER DAY 1 THE TWO MID LEVEL TROUGHS WEAKEN WHILE A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER THE WRN GREATLAKES. THE RIDGE OVER TX REMAINS STRONG AND STATIONARY WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC MAINTAINS ITSELF ALONG 28N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A 1023 MB ATLC HIGH WILL BE NEAR 30N47W WITH ELY TRADES TO 20 KT S OF 23N E OF 60W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN BRISK AT 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN BAHAMAS AND NE WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TO THE MID ATLC LOWERING HEIGHTS W OF 70W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX BUILDS NWD BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THE ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME WHILE REMAINING CENTERED NEAR 27N53W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE ATLC HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME TO 1024 MB AND MAINTAINS ELY TRADES TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. A NEW COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE NW GULF WITH NE WINDS TO 20 KT. THE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS REMAINS STATIONARY BUT WINDS OVER THE GULF WEAKEN SOME. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 A STRONG CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER THE SE US COAST AND DRIFTS SWD. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX SHIFTS NE TO AR WHILE THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID ATLC RIDGE AND ELY TRADES. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN SOME. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF MOVES QUICKLY SE TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE GULF. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY NE 10 TO 15 KT. ON DAY 4 THE STRONG CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD TO NEAR 32N78W WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER AR WEAKENING AND THE MID ATLC RIDGE REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME. A NEW STRONG SHORTWAVE BECOMES EVIDENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY BUT WEAKENS TO 1020 MB..THUS ELY TRADES DECREASE S OF 23N. TROUGHING OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WWD TO ALONG 75W. WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN NELY AT 15 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS S OF 17N ARE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS THE STRONG CUTOFF BEGINNING TO LIFT NE TO NEAR 33N73W BUT IT'S PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW WITH RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF IT. THE MID ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR 27N53W WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP S WEAKENS SLOWLY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE ATLC HIGH WEAKENS TO 1019 MB WHILE DRIFTING S TO NEAR 28N53W. ELY TRADES ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS ALSO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES NE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. GULF WINDS REMAIN NE 10 TO 15 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG