000
AGXX40 KNHC 030643
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 AM TUE OCT 03 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 29N65W TO ERN CUBA WITH BROAD RIDGE W OF 
AXIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST SW N ATLC.  PATTERN 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS 
THOROUGH SAT.  RETROGRADING CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST S OF PUERTO 
RICO BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO ERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ON WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W...BUT CAPPING 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG SW SHEAR OVER WAVE.  DRY AIR MASS W OF 
65W SHOULD ALSO CURTAIL CONVECTION WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS. 

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER YUCATAN AND GULF OF MEXICO 
ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT ON W SIDE OF FEATURE... 
MAINLY E PAC ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.  LITTLE UPLIFT MECHANISMS
PREVENTS CONVECTION BUT WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 85W S OF 
20N COULD PRODUCE MORE ACTIVITY THAN PRESENTLY OBSERVED. 

HIGH PRES RIDGE BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SW N ATLC SHOULD 
INCREASE NE WIND TODAY ALONG BOUNDARY STRETCHING65W TO N COAST 
OF CUBA AND EXTENDING INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON CREST OF TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 85W.  MODEL COINCIDE IN KEEPING MODERATE TO STRONG  
NE WIND THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AND THU BECOMING LIGHT FOR 
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

CARIBBEAN TRADES CONTINUE STRONG THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH THU 
NIGHT AND FRI BUT START PICKING UP AGAIN LATE SAT AS ATLC RIDGE 
STRENGTHENS.    

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES