000 AGXX40 KNHC 020511 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM MON OCT 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT LONGWAVE TROUGHS REMAIN ACTIVE AND MOVING WHILE RIDGES REMAIN STATIONARY. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 70W AND THE OTHER OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 30W. ONE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ALONG 90W AND THE OTHER OVER MID OCEAN ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT FRONTS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEMSELVES FELT S OF 30N WITH AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATLC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER MID OCEAN AND EXTENDS W TO 60W. MODERATE WINDS ARE MOSTLY E OF 60W AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLOWLY OVER THE SE GULF..STRAITS OF FL AND WRN BAHAMAS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLOWLY. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE THEIR MOVEMENT AS THE WRN ONE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT DRAGS IT'S AXIS ALONG 70W. THE ERN ATLC TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTING OFF NEAR 30N30W. MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF WILL MOVE NE OVER THE SE CONUS AND MAINTAIN MODERATE NE WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AND ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC CHANGE LITTLE. FOR DAY 2 SOME LONG TO THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN ATLC FOR DAYS. A WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN ALONG 70W BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO LIFT NWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EWD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BUT MAINTAINS A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 20N AND 30N FROM 70W TO 90W THUS WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL. CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC E OF 60W MOSTLY MODERATE BETWEEN 15N AND 24N. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WHILE A STRONG ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS N OF THE REGION..A WEAKNESS ALONG 70W BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. BOTH MID LEVEL RIDGES BEGIN TO SHIFT WWD SLIGHTLY AND THE E ATLC CUTOFF BEGINS TO LIFT NE TO NEAR 33N30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS NE TO NEAR 31N60W WITH A FLAT HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE AND E WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN 20N AND 30N FROM 60W TO 95W. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ELY TRADES E OF 60W MOSTLY MODERATE FROM 16N TO 24N. DAY 4 FINDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD AT MID LEVELS PERSISTING ALONG 70W. THE WRN MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO SEND WEAK SHORTWAVES SE INTO THE WEAKNESS ALONG 70W. THIS TENDS TO REINFORCE IT. THE MID ATLC RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ALONG 30N AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS WWD BACK OVER THE NW GULF WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE NE WINDS BACK OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC WEAKENING AND CONFINED TO W OF 75W. ERN CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME E OF 60W. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS THE WRN MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NWD OVER THE MID WEST ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE OVER THE MID ATLC TOWARD THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO MID LEVEL RIDGES. THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS SWD DAY 5 TO ALONG 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE MID ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS IT'S STRENGTH WITH ELY TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 15N AND 25N E OF 65W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 70W. THAT OLD PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WWD SOME TO 73W AND THE RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH NE WINDS DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG 000 AGXX40 KNHC 020511 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON OCT 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT LONGWAVE TROUGHS REMAIN ACTIVE AND MOVING WHILE RIDGES REMAIN STATIONARY. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 70W AND THE OTHER OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 30W. ONE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ALONG 90W AND THE OTHER OVER MID OCEAN ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT FRONTS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEMSELVES FELT S OF 30N WITH AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATLC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER MID OCEAN AND EXTENDS W TO 60W. MODERATE WINDS ARE MOSTLY E OF 60W AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLOWLY OVER THE SE GULF..STRAITS OF FL AND WRN BAHAMAS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLOWLY. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE THEIR MOVEMENT AS THE WRN ONE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT DRAGS IT'S AXIS ALONG 70W. THE ERN ATLC TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTING OFF NEAR 30N30W. MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF WILL MOVE NE OVER THE SE CONUS AND MAINTAIN MODERATE NE WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AND ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC CHANGE LITTLE. FOR DAY 2 SOME LONG TO THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN ATLC FOR DAYS. A WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN ALONG 70W BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO LIFT NWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EWD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BUT MAINTAINS A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 20N AND 30N FROM 70W TO 90W THUS WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL. CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC E OF 60W MOSTLY MODERATE BETWEEN 15N AND 24N. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WHILE A STRONG ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS N OF THE REGION..A WEAKNESS ALONG 70W BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. BOTH MID LEVEL RIDGES BEGIN TO SHIFT WWD SLIGHTLY AND THE E ATLC CUTOFF BEGINS TO LIFT NE TO NEAR 33N30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS NE TO NEAR 31N60W WITH A FLAT HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE AND E WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN 20N AND 30N FROM 60W TO 95W. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ELY TRADES E OF 60W MOSTLY MODERATE FROM 16N TO 24N. DAY 4 FINDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD AT MID LEVELS PERSISTING ALONG 70W. THE WRN MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO SEND WEAK SHORTWAVES SE INTO THE WEAKNESS ALONG 70W. THIS TENDS TO REINFORCE IT. THE MID ATLC RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ALONG 30N AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS WWD BACK OVER THE NW GULF WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE NE WINDS BACK OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC WEAKENING AND CONFINED TO W OF 75W. ERN CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME E OF 60W. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS THE WRN MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NWD OVER THE MID WEST ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE OVER THE MID ATLC TOWARD THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO MID LEVEL RIDGES. THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS SWD DAY 5 TO ALONG 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE MID ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS IT'S STRENGTH WITH ELY TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 15N AND 25N E OF 65W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 70W. THAT OLD PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WWD SOME TO 73W AND THE RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH NE WINDS DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG