000 AGXX40 KNHC 010501 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN OCT 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT PLUNGING SWD OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH IN OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 77W TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE WRN GULF. THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 50W BLOCKED BY A EQUALLY STRONG SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH E OF 40W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HRCN ISAAC HAS MOVED N OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 32.5N 59.9W AT 03Z MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. WEAK TRPCL WAVES WERE ALONG 37W..64W AND 74W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ARE MOSTLY LIGHT N OF 20N W OF 60W AND MODERATE ELY IN THE CENTRAL CARIB. LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO 74W AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NE. THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 50W AND ENERGY DROPS S TO 27N36W IN THE ERN ATLC TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS E TO 72W. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN INCREASING NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. CARIB WINDS REMAIN UNCHANGED. FOR DAY 2 STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES DEVELOP OVER MID CONTINENT MOVING THE E COAST TROUGH TO 70W AND FORCING IT OVER THE MID ATLC RIDGE. THE ERN ATLC TROUGH CUTS OFF WITH A CENTER NEAR 30N30W. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAK TROUGH HANGS ON ALONG 70W WITH HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE CAROLINA COAST RESULTING IN BRISK NE WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS E OF 60W WITH E TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 18N AND 26N E OF 65W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EXITS OUR REGION DAY 3 AND HEADS FOR THE N ATLC AND OVER THE MID ATLC RIDGE. A STRONG CUTOFF ANCHORED NEAR 30N32W REMAINS STATIONARY. THE LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE FLATTENED BY THE STRONG WESTERIES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES BRISH NE WINDS W OF 70W TO 93W. CARIB WINDS DECREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT INCREASE SOME N OF 20N. THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND E TRADES DECREASE DAY 3. FOR DAY 4 A STRONG ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS N OF 35N KEEPING ANY COLD AIR FROM HEADING INTO OUR REGION. THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER TX/LA WHILE THE MID ATLC RIDGE MOVES S TO NEAR 28N54W. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC BEGINS TO LIFT NE TO NEAR 30N35W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 WEAK TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHILE A 1022 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NE WINDS W OF 70W. LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS ELSEWHERE. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 74W MOVES SLOWLY EWD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX/LA STRENGTHENS. THE MID ATLC RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND MERGES WITH THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. THE OLD CUTOFF OPENS UP DAY 5 AND LIFTS NE TOWARD THE AZORES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 31N70W WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF BRISK NE WINDS W OF 75W. ERN CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 KT AS THE ATLC RIDGE 1024 MB CENTERED NEAR MID OCEAN STRENGTHENS SOME. THIS ALSO INCREASES ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC S OF 23N E OF 65W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG