000 AGXX40 KNHC 290512 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM FRI SEP 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ON THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF WINTER PROPORTIONS DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS. A EQUALLY LONGWAVE RIDGE COVERS THE MID ATLC TONIGHT WITH A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED ON IT'S SE SIDE NEAR 25N35W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.S. ISAAC IS LOCATED NEAR 29N55W MOVING NW AT 6 KT. IT HAS A SMALL WIND FIELD WITH SEAS TO 16 FT WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ONE DISSIPATING FRONT LIES OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS WHILE A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. WINDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY W OF 70W AS THE MAIN SURGE IN THE LONGWAVE TURNS MORE ELY. THE MID OCEAN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. ON THE SURFACE T.S. ISAAC WILL TURN MORE NLY AND SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA. WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF MOVES RAPIDLY SE TO CENTRAL FL BUT THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR DAY 2 VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HANGS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE MID ATLC RIDGE BUILDS NWD ALONG 50W AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SWD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 T.S. ISAAC SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION LEAVING MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W. THE FRONT OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS STALLS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE ERN GULF. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS BEGINS TO CONTRACT AS COLD AIR DIMINISHES AND THE WESTERLIES BECOME MORE ZONAL DAY 3. THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT EWD TO ALONG 77W. THE MID OCEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE IS STUCK ALONG 50W BLOCKED BY THE STRONG SHORTAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF NEAR 32N32W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 OR THE FIRST DAY OF OCTOBER..THE OLD FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE W CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF AND NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER SE GULF DAY 3. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION AND ATLC WINDS W OF 60W ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG TROUGH NOW MOVES RAPIDLY EWD TO ALONG 68W AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG 90W. THE MID ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 50W WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW STATIONARY NEAR 30N32W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WIND PROBLEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE HIGH SEAS AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER THE STRONG CUTOFF. THE STALLED FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS EWD TO 72W WITH STILL A HINT OF WAVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF LIFTS NE TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND RIDGE WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. CARIB WINDS RELAX SOME TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT DAY 4. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL TROUGHING LIFTS NE OFF THE NE CONUS AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NRN GULF. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND BEGINS TO REBUILD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO NEAR 32N32W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 WINDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LIFTS NE WITH THE UPPER CENTER. WINDS BETWEEN 75W AND 85W COULD STRENGHEN TO 25 KT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IF THE TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NW CARIB DAY 5 AND W TO 90W OVER THE GULF. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG