000 AGXX40 KNHC 241743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM SUN SEP 24 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST...PRODUCING MAINLY E/SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME SWELL FROM HELENE LINGERING OVER THE AREA RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE E PART. NOAA BUOY 41010 E OF CAPE CANAVERAL STILL HAS SEAS AT 5 FT WHICH IS ACTUALLY RUNNING 1 FT OR SO ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL TURN SW AND MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD WILL STAY N OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TUE MORNING THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. A SECONDARY SURGE MAY PUSH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER S TOWARDS THE NRN BAHAMAS/S FLORIDA BY FRI...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T APPEAR IT WILL REALLY MAKE MUCH HEADWAY. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HELENE'S SWELL DIMINISHES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH W TO PRODUCE MODERATE/STRONG TRADES OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A 1024 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 31 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WHICH WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS NOW ALONG 64W BUT ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT AFFECTING THE WIND/SEA FIELD. AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 19N44W HAS SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE TO ITS W...AND HENCE CAUSED A LIGHTER WIND FIELD OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THIS LOW WILL AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. GULF OF MEXICO... A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CAUSED WINDS TO SHIFT NLY AT THE COASTAL BUOYS...WITH EVEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT REPORTED AT BUOY 42020. THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY EVENING. THE W END OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITH WINDS TURNING NLY AND INCREASING TO 30 KT JUST OFFSHORE. THE NEW 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF JUST A BIT FROM THE 06Z RUN BUT STILL SHOWS AN AREA OF 30 KT NONETHELESS. IT DELAYS THE TIMING A BIT WITH THE SURGE GETTING GOING BY LATE MON MORNING THEN RELAXING BY MON NIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION VERSION OF THE NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AND STALL FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. SELY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE GULF ON FRI BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR 15-20 KT FOR NOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG