000 AGXX40 KNHC 171901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM SUN SEP 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY TUE NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 78W AND NE-E 10 KT WINDS OF 78W THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SW 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PART TUE AND TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE U.S. SE COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LINE WED AND FROM 31N70W TO S FLORIDA THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGES S OVER THE W PORTION. MAJOR SWELL EVENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA BY FRI AS LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRESENT WORDING OF SWELLS AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE NT3...BUT EXTENT COVERAGE SOME TO THE W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS BY FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES WILL CONTINUE ON THE RATHER WEAK SIDE THROUGH WITH WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN RUNNING ABOUT 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN 15-20 KT THROUGH TUE DECREASING TO 10-15 KT WED THROUGH FRI ALONG WITH SEAS. ELSEWHERE ELY WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 10 KT WITH SEAS 3-6 FT EXCEPT 2-3 FT NW PART. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (AMZ087)...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND RESULTANT 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS FROM HURRICANE HELENE WILL AFFECT THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AREA TUE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THU INTO FRI. EXPECT NE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF UP 8 FT TO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA LATE WED AND THU THEN SUBSIDING TO 6 FT FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OVER W TEXAS AND HIGH PRES EXTENDING SW ALONG THE N GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATE SLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF THROUGH LATE MON AFTERNOON OVER THE NW GULF AND THROUGH MON NIGHT OVER THE SW GULF. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER WELL PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND EUROPEAN AGREE THAT THE FRONT MOVES TO THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON EVENING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SOLN ARE A BIT TOO FAST IN PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF. BY MON EVENING THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. DO FAVOR TIMINING OF FRONT INTO NW GULF NEAR 00Z TUE AS INDICATED BY THE NAM/NOGAPS/AND CANADIAN OVER THE GFS AND EUROPEAN...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR FRONTAL POSITION AND THE NAM AND EUROPEAN FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST DAYS AS I FAVOR THEIR SLOWER SOLN OF FRONT MOVING ACROSS GULF WITH UPPER SUPPORT LOSING ITS HOLD DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT FLOW BEHIND FRONT TO BE NW-N 15 KT MON NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE N-NE 15 KT TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE N POTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA SW TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND EXIT THE GULF THU. NLY WINDS WILL DECEASE QUICKLY THU AND FRI AS FRONT EXITS THE GULF. STRONG SLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE W GULF LATE THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE MID-WEST AND ATLC HIGH PRES DIGS SW ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE NE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE