000 AGXX40 KNHC 141738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM THU SEP 14 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LONG PERIOD SWELL LEFTOVER FROM A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE FLORENCE. BUOYS OFF THE CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA E COAST ARE REPORTING 1-2 FT WIND WAVES ON TOP OF 6-8 FT NE SWELL... GIVING COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NWW3 GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 7-8 FT SWELLS EXTENDING S TO 22N. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY CALM TO 3 FT ON SAT. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO NE FLORIDA. ONLY LIGHT NWLY WINDS AND SEAS EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER SE U.S. COAST THROUGH TUE. MAJOR HURRICANE GORDON WILL STAY E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE... CONTINUING TO MOVE N/NE. SINCE GORDON IS SMALL AND MOVING N...THE LARGEST SWELLS WILL ALSO STAY E OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM OF ITS AXIS. A 1000 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM 15-20 KT BEHIND THE WAVE WITH A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS...WHICH ARE CONTAMINATED AND LIKELY DUE TO RAIN-FLAGGING. AN EASTERLY SURGE IS LOCATED E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W. THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS E OF THE SURGE FROM 10N-12N E OF 59W...ALSO LIKELY DUE TO RAIN-FLAGGING. GFS SHOWS WINDS INCREASING IN THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT IN E SWELL. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. TROPICAL STORM HELENE HAS BEEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE E/NE OF THE AREA...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HELENE NEARS THE AREA WITH ITS CLOSEST APPROACH EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE. THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HELENE AND THIS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE N GULF FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N90W THEN STATIONARY TO THE S TEXAS COAST. THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY TOMORROW AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. THE FRONT IS NOT VERY VIGOROUS AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS IN TSTMS. SEAS ARE LOW WITH MOST BUOYS REPORTING 2 FT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. NWW3 SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODEL SHOWS SLY RETURN FLOW AND SEAS INCREASING LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WRN GULF AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE U.S. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI