000 AGXX40 KNHC 131733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM WED SEP 13 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... MAIN ISSUE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE LEFTOVER LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM POST-HURRICANE FLORENCE. NOAA BUOYS OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST ARE REPORTING 2-3 FT WIND WAVES ON TOP OF 8-9 FT NE SWELL AT 14-15 SECONDS...GIVING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT. SEA HEIGHTS MATCH NWW3 GUIDANCE WELL IN THIS AREA ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE ABOUT 3-4 SECONDS TOO LOW IN THE MODEL. IF THE MODEL IS CORRECT THEN MAXIMUM HEIGHTS ARE TO 12 FT ALONG 31N E OF 75W...AND 8 FT SWELLS EXTEND S TO 22N. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD BE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE THU...WITH THE ENTIRE EVENT NOT LIKELY TO END UNTIL SAT. A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THU AFTERNOON BUT WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...SO IT SHOULD NOT EXACERBATE THE SEAS TOO MUCH. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER SE U.S. COAST. HURRICANE GORDON WILL STAY E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE...CONTINUING TO MOVE N/NE. SINCE GORDON IS SMALL AND MOVING N...THE LARGEST SWELLS WILL ALSO STAY E OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BENIGN OVER THE AREA WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FLARED UP OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND MAY CAUSE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THU AND FRI...THEN SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 OR 13 FT IN E SWELL. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT ON MON WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST E/NE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH A FORECAST POINT OF 22.0 49.5W MON MORNING...BUT IT STILL COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WIND FIELD LATE IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NW GULF...JUST RECENTLY PASSING BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE FRONT IS NOT VERY VIGOROUS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF...AND GUSTING HIGHER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY 1-3 FT WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N GULF AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SAT. HIGH PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE U.S. SUN AND MON...TURNING WINDS MORE E/SE AND POSSIBLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG