000 AGXX40 KNHC 100511 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN SEP 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 85W IS MOVING ENE IN A RELATIVELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE MID ATLC RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N50W AND A SECOND E/W ELONGATED RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING E OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE T.S. FLORENCE WHICH IS MOVING NNW AT 11 KT NEAR 27N65W. THE ATLC RIDGE IS WELL TO THE NE BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE SE FETCH BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 1 THE MID ATLC RIDGE AT MID LEVELS REMAINS STATIONARY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE US MOVES ENE AND INFLUENCES THE NWD MOTION OF FLORENCE. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF STRENGTHENS SOME. ON THE SURFACE FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO REACH HRCN STRENGTH AND CONTINUE MOVING NWD TO NEAR 29N65W. REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNCHANGED. DAY 2 FINDS A STRONG CUTOFF MID LEVEL CYCLONE PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLC RIDGE FROM THE SE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERCEPTS FLORENCE AND TAKES HER NEWD. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF REMAINS STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 HRCN FLORENCE EXITS THE REGION MOVING NE BUT WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM BETWEEN 55W AND 75W N OF 23N. THERES SOME INDICATION ELY TRADES BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME OVER THE CARIB AS THE ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD W OF 60W. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE CENTRAL ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO NEAR 30N25W WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO NEAR 30N42W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DROPS SE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND PHASES IN ALONG 60W WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT INTERCEPTS FLORENCE. A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 3 WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 SOME INCREASE IN ELY WINDS OVER THE CARIB TO 20 KT MAINLY S CENTRAL PORTION. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE ATLC WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. DAY 4 FINDS THE WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AS ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS OVER THE N ATLC AND THE SECOND ONE MOVES TO THE TN VALLEY. THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE NEAR 32N42W PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 30N28W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS SOME AS THE STRONG TROUGH TO THE N ERODES THE RIDGE ALONG 30N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N GULF COAST BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. STILL SOME SW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SOME INCREASE IN NE WINDS OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE HIGH SEAS AREA AS THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR 9N38W. CARIB WINDS DECREASE SOME AND GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. FOR DAY 5 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A BATTLE BETWEEN STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES AND TWO STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS..ONE OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 33N30W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 27N60W. ONE SHORTWAVE IS THE OLD CUTOFF LOW LIFTING N ALONG 44W AND THE OTHER IS THE TN VALLEY SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES TO THE SE US. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF STALLS ALONG 28N. A SECOND FRONT N OF THE REGION APPROACHES 30N E OF 60W WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20 KT. REMAINDER OF THE REGION W OF 60W REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS. ELY TRADES S OF 22N E OF 60W PICK UP TO 20 KT WITH SOME TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND MIGRATING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 69W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG