000 AGXX40 KNHC 091905 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM SAT SEP 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 08/1500 UTC IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. FLORENCE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THIS AREA OF THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. FLORENCE IS ATTENDED BY A VERY LARGE WINDS RADII OF 34 KT WINDS THAT IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS FLORENCE INTENSIFYING TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR 25.9N 64.8W. IT IS FORECAST TO THEN MOVE NW AND N ALONG 65W/66W THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN TURN NE LATE SUN NIGHT EXITING THE AREA MON MORNING. HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA INTO MON AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BUT LARGE RESIDUAL NLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE AND E PARTS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH HEIGHTS TO 11 FT AS DEPICTED BY THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL. ANOTHER AREA OF NLY SWELLS MOVES INTO THE AREA N OF ABOUT 28N W OF 70W TUE TO N OF 26N WED...AND BEGINS TO SUBSIDE LATE WED AND THU WITH HIGHEST SEAS PROJECTED BY THE LATEST NWW3 MODEL RUN TO BE 9 FT THU OVER THE NE PART AND TO 8 FT NEAR THE E SIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 25N E OF 71W WED AND THU. GFS MOVES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NW PART LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WIND REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON MORNING. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY AFTER 10 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 17N W OF 58W...AND LIGHTER SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 67W. AS FLORENCE PULLS FURTHER NW AWAY FROM THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN DIRECTION ALONG WITH LOW SEAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLOW DECAYING SWELLS OVER THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING PART OF MON. WEAK RIDGE WILL NOSE SW THROUGH THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC TUE AND WED ...THEN BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRES FROM THE N THU. GULF OF MEXICO... 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA WNW THROUGH 29N86W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A LOW FORMS OVER THE NE GULF SUN AND TRACKS ENE ACROSS N FLORIDA...WHILE REST OF MODELS INDICATE RIDGING FROM THE N ALONG THE SE U.S. INTO FLORIDA SUN THROUGH TUE. WILL ACCEPT THE GFS LOW AS A FRONTAL WAVE FOR TIME BEING...AND MENTION LOW PRES IN THE FORECAST ONLY IF AND WHEN IT DOES TAKE SHAPE OVER THE N GULF. BUOY AND SHIP FROM AROUND THE GULF CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY 1-2 FT SEAS ACROSS ALL ZONES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NEAR THE N GULF COAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE N GULF MON AND TUE BEFORE SHIFTING E OF GULF WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE E GULF WED AND E OF GULF THU. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THU WITH A TEMPORARY SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE 10-15 KT RANGE ALONG THE N GULF COAST THU. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH POSSIBLY SHORT LIVED 2-3 FT SEAS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 24N E OF 68W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE