000 AGXX40 KNHC 090522 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SAT SEP 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ON THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 34N54W AND DRIFTING SLOWLY E. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED WSW TO S FL. THE RIDGE IS BEING BLOCKED BY A VIGOROUS MID CYCLONE NEAR 26N32W. THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF AND HAVE BEEN ERODING THE RIDGE AXIS THE PAST TWO DAYS. A STRONG TROUGH WAS DIVING SE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE FLORENCE WHICH HAS MOVED TO NEAR 25N61W. WHILE STILL A TROPICAL STORM..IT IS EXPECTED TO GAIN CAT ONE HRCN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. SHE HAS TURNED MORE NW AS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE US MOVES ENE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE NE PRODUCES A LARGE WIND AND SEAS FIELD. OTHERWISE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 1 THE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT E TO NEAR 34N50W WHILE A SECOND RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 1 HRCN FLORENCE MOVES TO NEAR 26N64W WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TO NEAR 34N48W STILL BEING BLOCKED BY THE STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N35W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXPANDS E TO OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE MOVES NE AND WEAKENS. THE STRONG TROUGH N OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES E OVER THE NRN NEW ENGLAND AREA. A THIRD SHORTWAVE DROPS SE INTO THE N CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 HRCN FLORENCE GAINS STRENGTH TO CAT TWO AS IT MOVES NWD TO NEAR 29N65W. THE STORM CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SW ATLC AREA BETWEEN 50W AND 75W N OF 20N. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID ATLC RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS IT FINALLY SLIDES SE AND THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVES NW TO NEAR 27N37W. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS E OVER THE NRN CARIB. THE WEAKENED SHORTWAVE MOVING NE PICKS UP FLORENCE AND MOVES IT NE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE N CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TO THE MIDWEST DAY 3. ON THE SURFACE HRCN FLORENCE EXITS THE REGION BUT HER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO BE A FACTOR BETWEEN 55W AND 75W N OF 23N. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB AND NW GULF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR DAY 4 THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE GAINS NEW LIFE NEAR 32N27W AND WILL NOW PLAY THE ROLE OF A BLOCKER. THE OLD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTS NWD TO NEAR 30N42W. THE SHORTWAVE WITH FLORENCE PHASES IN WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST GAINS AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF CHANGES LITTLE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 STILL SOME WIND AND SEA PROBLEMS BETWEEN 55W AND 70W N OF 25N WITH DEPARTING FLORENCE WELL TO THE N. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE TX GULF COAST DAY 4 BUT GRADIENTS LOOK WEAK. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION. DAY 5 FINDS THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NW OF THE CANARIES NEAR 32N28W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING WWD BETWEEN 20N AND 30N ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND JOINING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER MOVING W OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N23W..MIGHT BE OUR NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER VORT MAX IS LOCATED NEAR 10N37W. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO THE TN VALLEY DAY 5. ON THE SURFACE THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE TX COAST BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. SOME SWLY WINDS OF 20 KT REMAIN OVER THE ATLC E OF 60W N OF 25N. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO PICK JUST A BIT WITH A TRPL WAVE IN THE E CARIB. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N37W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND VORT MAX. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 26N E OF 67W SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AMZ080...ELSEWHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 22N E OF 72W SAT MORNING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG