000 AGXX40 KNHC 081913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM FRI SEP 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 23.0N 59.1W AT 08/1500 UTC IS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. FLORENCE IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION AS IT SLOWLY BECOMES BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS RELAXED SOME...AND SO A LESS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS MADE IT FAVORABLE FOR FLORENCE TO STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATED EXPANDING 34 KT WIND RADII IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE E PART OF THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY SAT NIGHT NEAR 27.0N 64.5W...THEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG OR JUST E OF 65W THROUGH SUN NIGHT EXITING THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON NIGHT. BESIDES FLORENCE'S AFFECT ON THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...LINGERING LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE N PORTION E OF 77W THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECT THE WIND REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON MORNING. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING SW WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 16N E OF 60W WITH LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE SEEN OVER THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AS FLORENCE PULLS FURTHER NW AWAY FROM THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE 20-25 KT WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN DIRECTION WITH LOW SEAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLOW DECAYING SWELLS OVER THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING PART OF MON. WEAK RIDGE WILL NOSE SW THROUGH THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC TUE AND WED. GULF OF MEXICO... 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY SW THROUGH 28N88W TO 27N92W. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IS SEEN AS SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY N OF 27N E OF 88W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE N OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO SEEN ALONG THE W PORTION FROM 25N-28N W OF 92W. BUOY AND SHIP FROM AROUND THE GULF CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY 1-2 FT SEAS ACROSS ALL ZONES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE NE GULF MON AND TUE BEFORE SHIFTING E OF GULF WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE E GULF. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DESPITE THE NEW FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS. WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT WITH POSSIBLY SHORT LIVED 2-3 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AND ALSO N OF 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W...AMZ087 AND AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE