000 AGXX40 KNHC 080514 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM FRI SEP 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE T.S. FLORENCE OVER MID OCEAN NEAR 21N56W MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. FLORENCE IS ON THE S SIDE OF A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. THE WESTERLIES ARE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS FALL APPROACHES AND ARE MAKING ENRODES OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE THE PRESSURE PATTERN W OF 70W CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE WIND FIELD ARROUND FLORENCE ON THE N SIDE CONTINUES LARGE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE NE. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF TRYING TO MOVE E BUT A LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N30W AND IS BLOCKING IT'S PATH. THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO ERODE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE W OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW AND REMAIN A T.S. FOR DAY 2 A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE N ATLC AND ALLOW THE RIDGE CENTER AT 35N50W TO MERGE WITH IT. THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO ERODE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE W OF 70W AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FLORENCE TO TAKE A MORE NWLY TRACK TOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS AT MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN HRCN STRENGTH NEAR 26N64W. THE WIND FIELD ON THE NE QUADRANT CONTINUES QUITE LARGE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE. PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF 70W REMAINS WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTING NW TO NEAR 34N48W STILL INFLUENCED BY THE INCREASING HEIGHTS TO THE N THANKS TO THE STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DRIVING EWD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE WESTERLIES W OF 70W BECOME A LITTLE MORE WLY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN GULF AND WRN BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPLOIT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD AND TURN MORE NWD ALONG 65W. THE STORM REMAINS THE ONLY SHOW IN TOWN DAY 3 WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING OVER REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 20N AND W OF 70W. FOR DAY 4 THE WESTERLIES ARE ABLE TO SNAG FLORENCE AS SHE MOVES N OF 30N ALONG 64W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE THE MID ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. ON THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT'S UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EWD. THE CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED EARLIER WORKS IT'S WAY WWD TO 40W AIDING THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. EVEN WITH FLORENCE MOVING N OF 30N DAY 4 WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM BETWEEN 55W AND 74W N OF 23N..OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. DAY 5 FINDS THE WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENERGETIC WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CAPTURING FLORENCE ALONG 60W. THIS SHORTWAVE ALSO DISLODGES THE CLOSED MID CYCLONE AND MOVES IT NE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 5 AND BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE TX GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W EVEN THOUGH FLORENCE HAS DEPARTED THE REGION. THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME BUT REMAINS E OF 50W..OTHERWISE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT. SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS MODEL OF A NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR 10N37W BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE IF FURTHER RUNS OF THE MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 24N E OF 68W SAT THROUGH MON...AMZ080. TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N THU...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG