000
AGXX40 KNHC 071833
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 PM THU SEP 07 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 19N60W...AND CONTINUES 
TO PROVIDE DECENT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO TROPICAL 
STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA 
TO N FL...AND THE APPROACHING FLORENCE. THIS IS GENERATING AN 
EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
WATERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 40W AND 60W BETWEEN FLORENCE AND 30N. 
THIS AREA WILL EXPAND FURTHER AS THE FLORENCE MARCHES NW...EVEN 
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NW AHEAD OF THE STORM. LATEST FORECAST 
FOR TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE SLOWED THE STORM DOWN SLIGHTLY AND 
MOVED THE TRACK A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE 
REQUIRED. STILL EXPECTING FLORENCE TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC ZONE 
AS A HURRICANE BY EARLY SUN...BEFORE MOVING N ALONG 66W. 
STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE WILL STAY WELL 
TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND WILL DECREASE STARTING EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS THE STORM MOVES N. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE PROGRESS OF 
TROPICAL STROM FLORENCE THROUGH THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC ZONE. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. 
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH N OF 17N BY 
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLORENCE MOVES W. FLORENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE N 
OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS DECLINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SHIP AND BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOW ONLY 
MODERATE GENERALLY E WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS HAVE BEEN 
DECREASING LARGELY DUE THE WEAKENING AND NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE 
ATLC RIDGE...IN ADVANCE OF FLORENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO 
START TO INCREASE BY MON OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AFTER 
FLORENCE LIFTS OUT AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW ATLC.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA 
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF. WEAK 
TROUGHING WAS EVIDENT THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF ALONG A 
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. COASTAL AREAS 
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IN THE 
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE ATLC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD W OVER 
THE GULF AS THE LOW AND FRONT LIFT OUT THROUGH THE SE U.S. 
THROUGH FRI. BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY SEE WINDS INCHING UP OVER 10 KT 
BY SUN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING TO THE S OF THE AREA. 
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL LEAVE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG 
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 24N E OF 68W SAT THROUGH 
MON...AMZ080.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N TONIGHT AND THU...AMZ087  

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN