000 AGXX40 KNHC 061702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM WED SEP 06 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE CONUS AND THROUGH THE SW ATLC AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING MODERATE S TO SW WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE APPROACHING FROM THE SE. FLORENCE REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FLORENCE APPROACHING THE SW ATLC FORECAST ZONE BY EARLY SAT AS A HURRICANE THEN RECURVE TOWARD BERMUDA. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N58W WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING DECENT SHEAR TO THE STORM. NONETHELESS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AND ALLOW FLORENCE TO INTENSIFY LATE IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NE QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC STARTING TOMORROW MORNING...AND TRANSIT TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N AHEAD OF FLORENCE'S APPROACH N OF THE ISLANDS. CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 67W. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE W BUT DAMPEN OUT IS IT GOES. GFS SHOWS A FAINT SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. ANOTHER WAVE IS NEAR 80W...BUT WEAKENING. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO WRN GULF WATERS...BUT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF STALLING OVER THE ERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS W FROM THE ATLC TO THE WRN GULF LATE THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN MAINLY ELY FLOW BY LATE THU. LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN AND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT...AMZ087. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN