000 AGXX40 KNHC 051732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM TUE SEP 05 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS GENERALLY ALONG 28N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALLOW SW WINDS TO INCREASE W OF 76W WED AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU. MODERATE TRADES S OF 23N WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. LOOKING AHEAD...NE WINDS WILL BEGINNING TO INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...NOW WELL E OF THE REGION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TO 300 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS A HURRICANE BY LATE FRI. CURRENT FORECAST HAS FLORENCE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 76W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W 69 KT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE WED AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS N. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM STARTING THU. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FROM TEXAS THROUGH ALABAMA STARTING LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF BY LATE WED...AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W INTO THE EASTERN AND S CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN