000
AGXX40 KNHC 050715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 AM TUE SEP 05 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
WEAK RIDGE EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA WILL DRIFT N TO 30N 
WED THEN SHIFT E AS WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS WATERS OFF N FLORIDA 
WED.  S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND BECOME 
LIGHT NORTHERLIES BEHIND FRONT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND PATTERN 
TILL LATE IN OUTLOOK PERIOD WHEN INTENSIFIED T.D. SIX APPROACHES 
65W VERY LIKELY AS A HURRICANE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES CROSSING CARIBBEAN...ONE ALONG 58W AND 
ANOTHER ALONG 75W.  OVERALL DRY AIRMASS UNDER BROAD ATLC RIDGE 
UMBRELLA CURTAILS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON BOTH CASES. MAIN 
FEATURE TO DISCUSS IS T.D. SIX APPROACH AND CROSSING OF NE 
CORNER OF TROPICAL ATLC ZONE.  GFDL SKIRTS IT AS STRONG TROPICAL 
STORM WHILE OTHER MODEL DIFFER IN INTENSITY...TRACK AND TIMING.  
FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN LOYAL TO GFS SOLUTION BUT THEN 
FOLLOWS OFFICIAL TRACK ON T.D. SIX ON FRI WHICH LEANS CLOSER TO 
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG COASTAL WATERS FROM SE LOUISIANA 
COAST TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.  ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS CHANGE 
DIRECTIONS BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH TAMED SEAS.  QUICK SURGE IN N 
WINDS OFF S TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AS FRONT TRIES TO PUSH S...BUT 
IS SHORT LIVED AND WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT BY EARLY WED. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES