000
AGXX40 KNHC 040735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 PM SUN SEP 03 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
MAIN FEATURE OVER ATLC IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION SIX.  EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL STORM 
WITHIN 12 HRS AND FURTHER INTO HURRICANE AS PER VARIOUS MODELS 
SOMETIME EARLY THU...T.D. SIX IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW W-NW TRACK 
AND APPROACH TROPICAL ATLC NE CORNER LATE THU.  MAIN DIFFERENCE 
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO A 
SLIGHTLY MORE NW TRACK...BUT MOST OTHER PARAMETERS REMAIN WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE.  SW N ATLC CAN ALSO BE AFFECTED E OF 70W IF T.D. 
SIX CONTINUES ON NW TRACK BUT SHOULD BE WELL BEYOND THIS 
FORECAST PACKAGE.  

OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS FROM 31N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
CONTINUES WITH LIGHT SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN.  OVERALL VERY 
DRY AIRMASS E OF 74W.  FRONTAL TROUGH EXITS GA COAST WED WITH SW 
WINDS INCREASING N OF 28N W OF 78W AND SPREADING E TO 72W BY 
LATE WED BEFORE LIFTING NE OUT OF FORECAST WATERS THU.  LIGHT 
E-SE WINDS RETURN FRI.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
WAVE IN E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W AND 59W MOVING W 15 KT.  DRY 
AIRMASS UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURTAILING MUCH WEATHER 
ALONG WAVES WITH ONLY MINOR CONVECTION OVER LESSER ANTILLES.

FRONTAL TROUGH FORCES ATLC RIDGE E RELAXING TIGHT GRADIENT 
ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH FRI. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE DISSIPATE OVER NRN GULF TODAY.  WEAK COLD 
FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NRN GULF WATERS WED BUT CARRIES LITTLE 
WIND OR SEAS CHANGE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES