000 AGXX40 KNHC 030618 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM SUN SEP 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPDATE... NEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUN FOR THE FIRST TIME DEVELOPS A CONSOLIDATED AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE E ATLC AND BRINGS IT TO THE FAR NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE WINDS/SEAS TO 20 KT IN THAT AREA AND MENTION POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER IF INDEED A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS. SW N ATLC... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THAT A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SET UP ALONG 31N JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NW AND NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS STILL CENTERED JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ITS W TOWARDS S FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS TODAY...POSSIBLY AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND MOVE IT W TO FLORIDA BY MON. ELY TRADES INCREASE SUN NIGHT S OF 25N AS THE TROUGH AND A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE BOTH MOVE W. ELY FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...POSSIBLY TO 7 FT BY THU DEPENDING ON SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL E OF THE AREA. SLY FLOW ALSO INCREASES OVER THE FAR NW PART ON TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE GFS INCREASES WINDS TO 30 KT...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE MORE SUBDUED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GO WITH 15 KT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KT. THE FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA OF WED OR THU...BUT REALLY LOSES ITS PUSH AND MORE OR LESS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT LATER TODAY. A SMALL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W HAS INCREASED WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...AND THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING W AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY THROUGH MON. WINDS BECOME EVEN LIGHTER WED AND THU AS THE ATLC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLC. WITH REGARDS TO THAT DEVELOPMENT...A COMPLEX MONSOONAL TROUGH SPANS ACROSS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 48W ATTM WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE AREAS OF EMBEDDED LOW PRES. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS MOVES THIS TROUGH NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN FINALLY CONSOLIDATES A SINGULAR AREA OF LOW PRES BY TUE...GROWING TO A MONSTROUS SIZE AND APPROACHING THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THU. THE ONLY THING THAT IS CLEAR IS THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL FULLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE STATUS QUO AND ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NE PART THU. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AS ALL WINDS TAKE ON A MORE ELY COMPONENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EASES INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY...AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE THROUGH THU. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...MOVE W ACROSS FLORIDA ON MON...THEN MOVE INTO THE E GULF TUE THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT. DESPITE ALL THIS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WITH NO FORESEEABLE PROBLEMS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG