000 AGXX40 KNHC 020516 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 116 AM SAT SEP 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS NOW IN CONTROL OF THE W ATLC WATERS BEHIND ERNESTO'S DEPARTURE. ONLY MAJOR ISSUE AT THE MOMENT IS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 24N71W WHICH IS HELPING TO INDUCE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS WWD TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA (SOME OF WHICH IS LEFTOVER CONVECTION THAT FORMED INLAND EARLIER). SURFACE RIDING HAS BUILT IN FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS PRODUCING E/SE FLOW S OF 25N AND SE/S FLOW N OF 25N. HIGHEST WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT E OF THE SRN BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS N OF THE NRN BAHAMAS...AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4-5 FT ALONG 31N. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE SQUIRRELLY NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE W PART THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 25-30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. WILL MAINTAIN SEAS HIGHER THAN NWW3 GUIDANCE BASED ON THESE WINDS...UP TO 10 FT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE SAME AREA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AS THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 58W IS PRODUCING A NARROW SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS FROM 15N TO 20N BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES CONTINUES TO GATHER ITSELF WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 11N38W BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW AND IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE OFFSHORE AREA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND GFDL ALL MOVE THE SYSTEM NW WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH WED. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AS WELL AS CLIPER ALL TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WNW TRACK...WHICH ACTUALLY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE UNTIL IT CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. FOR NOW I WILL OPT FOR THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MEET IN THE MIDDLE WITH A POSITION NEAR 18N52W BY WED. THUS WILL NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE NEXT OFFSHORE PACKAGE. GULF OF MEXICO... WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA SW INTO THE N PART OF THE SW GULF ZONE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WED. THE TROUGH SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A SECOND TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS SUN...MOVE W ACROSS FLORIDA ON MON...THEN TAKE UP A POSITION OVER THE E AND MIDDLE GULF TUE AND WED. THIS MAY TURN WINDS MORE SLY OFF THE FLORIDA W COAST BOTH DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG