000 AGXX40 KNHC 011800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM FRI SEP 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ARE SHOWING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND MAINLY SMOOTH SEAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO MOVE WELL AWAY. FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUOY 41002 LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA IS SHOWING 15-16 KT WINDS...BUT DECREASING. WILL DROP MENTION OF 15 TO 20 KT FLOW IN NEXT OFFSHORE PACKAGE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES NEAR 24N70W...SPARKING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 270 NM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE SW ATLC MAINLY ALONG 28N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADES WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF 24N BY SUN AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON PUSHING TROUGH W OF 78W...AND KEEPS RIDGE AXIS ACROSS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS INTO NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOYS 41101 AND 41040 ARE SHOWING DEFINITE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 15N. IN FACT BUOY 41040 SHOWED BRIEF NW FLOW THIS MORNING...INDICATING THIS FEATURE IS STILL A CLOSED LOW. WHILE IT HAS YET TO DAMPENED OUT AS PROGGED...IT STILL LACKS MAJOR CONVECTION AND WILL PROBABLY OPEN UP AS WAVE LATE TODAY OR TOMORROW AND RIDE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A MORE PROMINENT LOW IS EVIDENT FURTHER E NEAR 12N37W IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH DISTINCT W FLOW TO THE SOUTH. GFS...NOGAPS AND ECMWF DEVELOP IT SLIGHTLY AND MOVE INTO THE NE SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...STRONG UPPER TROUGH STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR 24N70W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALLOWING DECENT MID/UPPER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION AND LIMITING CONVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLC IS STILL MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WILL LESSEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED CONVECTION EVIDENT ALONG TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN