000 AGXX40 KNHC 010514 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM FRI SEP 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS T.S. ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE N OF THE AREA INTO EASTERN NC. NOAA BUOY 41010 E OF CAPE CANAVERAL IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SW WINDS NEAR 20 KT WITH SEAS NOW DOWN TO 6 FT. THESE MATCH FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LATEST GFS AND NWW3 RUNS...WHICH CURRENTLY HAVE MAXIMUM WINDS AND SEAS OF 25 KT AND 10 FT RESPECTIVELY ALONG 31N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY DIE DOWN BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BUILD FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BE PUSHED A LITTLE TO THE E SUN THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN BAHAMAS NWD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING W ACROSS THE W ATLC AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP SE TO THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY TURN WINDS MORE N/NELY W OF 78W BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. ALSO...THE ELY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 KT RANGE S OF 24N BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... QUIKSCAT REVEALS THAT WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT WITH 25 KT LIMITED TO JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH A BIT SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD TO 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS...AND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST. NO PROBLEMS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. FARTHER E...A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 53W WITH A POSSIBLE LOW NEAR 16N. NOAA BUOY 41040 HAS RECENTLY GONE CALM TO THE S OF THIS FEATURE...SO IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE LOW ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE LOW BUT ALSO KEEPS A STIFF GRADIENT JUST TO ITS N FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 9N36W. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE... ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND POTENTIALLY CLIP THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON TUE. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SMOOTH WIND FIELD PROVIDED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HINTS AT AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS THE GULF FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 24N92W. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 2 FT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THEN DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT. WINDS BECOME TURN MAINLY NE SUN THROUGH TUE BUT STILL REMAIN LIGHT. A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE SW GULF JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST ESPECIALLY BEGINNING SAT...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NW/NLY ON ITS WRN SIDE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG