000 AGXX40 KNHC 311814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM THU AUG 31 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NNE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...N OF THE AREA. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS STILL COVERS ATLC WATERS S OF 31N HOWEVER...AND THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR WATERS N OF 29N W OF 77W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAINBANDS AROUND ERNESTO EXTENDING 240 NM OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE RAPIDLY FALLING. SUSTAINED WINDS AT BUOYS 41010 AND 41012 ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MAY BRING DOWN OVERNIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT CONSIDERING ERNESTO WILL WEAKEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 30N70W...AND WILL BUILD OVER THE SW ATLC IN THE WAKE OF ERNESTO RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY S OF 25N AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER THE SW ATLC NEAR 24N65W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 15N...BUT OTHERWISE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY DRY REGIME OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE N OF THE BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW CONTINUES FURTHER E OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...THE RESULT OF VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 17N50W. CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED AND ANEMIC AROUND THIS LOW. THE GFS STILL SHOWS IT OPENING UP AND DAMPENING OUT AS IT APPROACHES 55W...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH PROVOKE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS OVER TROPICAL N ATLC THIS WEEKEND. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE EVIDENT NEAR 35W IS PROGGED TO FORM A LOW BUT REMAIN E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE N CENTRAL AND E GULF. WITH REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN ALL BUT THE AREAS NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN TO PERSIST. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN FORECAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 30N W OF 77W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN