000 AGXX40 KNHC 300524 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM WED AUG 30 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... T.S. ERNESTO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS PROJECTED TO TAKE A COURSE TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL THIS EVENING THEN MOVE N OF THE AREA THU MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND UP TO 90 NM E OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED WERE AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE MIAMI COAST SUSTAINED AT 38 KT...BUT THE ANEMOMETER THERE IS AT A HEIGHT OF 44 METERS SO WINDS AT 10 METERS ARE LIKELY A LITTLE LOWER. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO WAVE DATA AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT THE GFDL VERSION SEEMS OK AT THE MOMENT WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 14 FT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXPAND OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND COULD REACH TO 21 FT AS ERNESTO MOVES N OF 31N THU MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST ADVISORY AND ERNESTO'S CURRENT POSITION...THE NEXT OFFSHORE PACKAGE WILL LIKELY TRIM THE T.S. WARNING TO N OF 24N W OF 77W. A RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS EVENING CONFIRMS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...NEAR 20 KT AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL POTENTIALLY BUILD TO 9 FT IN THE NARROW REGION JUST OFFSHORE THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHTER ELY WINDS THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW E OF THE AREA ALONG 44W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE E ATLC...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... THE T.S. WARNING FOR THE E GULF ZONE WAS DROPPED EARLIER THIS EVENING NOW THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII WERE SHRUNK OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF ERNESTO. THERE IS A LARGE GRADIENT IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE SE GULF RIGHT NOW...ABOUT 30 KT REPORTED AT LONG KEY AND SOMBRERO KEY AND ONLY 10-15 KT REPORTED AT BUOYS 42023 AND 42014 OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST. AS ERNESTO SHIFT N ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY...W WINDS 20-25 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF...INCLUDING FARTHER N INTO APALACHEE BAY. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW OVER THE ENTIRE NW GULF AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO...BUT WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI BUT STILL WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N 24N W OF 77W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG