000 AGXX40 KNHC 291807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM TUE AUG 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MIGRATING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE STORM IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST...MOVING NORTHWEST. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE UPPER KEYS AND MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...REMAIN INLAND TOMORROW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND MOVE INTO ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE NE COAST OF FL LATE WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ATLC WATERS W OF 77W THROUGH THU MORNING. BECAUSE ERNESTO WILL BE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...GIVEN TRACK UNCERTAINTY...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 18 FT IN THE NW BAHAMAS AND OFF NE FL. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF ERNESTO WILL BUILD W OVER THE ENTIRE SW ATLC AS ERNESTO SHIFTS N INTO THE CAROLINAS THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE NORTHWARD BOUND ERNESTO TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN VENEZUELAN COAST. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 14N45W SAT AND SUN...BUT KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE E OF FORECAST AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM ON THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS JUST INSIDE THE COASTAL WATERS BOUNDARIES OFF SW FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO HINTS THAT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF S OF 23N. AS ERNESTO MOVES OFF...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER GULF WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING W OF 77W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN