000 AGXX40 KNHC 290522 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM TUE AUG 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS STILL JUST INLAND OF THE N COAST OF CUBA...AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. ERNESTO COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES IT UP THE PENINSULA...RE-EMERGING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED NIGHT. ERNESTO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. EVEN WITH ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE OVER LAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST MAINLY W OF 78W. TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE W OF 77W IN THE NEXT OFFSHORE PACKAGE...CONTINGENT UPON POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE NEXT NHC ADVISORY. THE GFDL VERSION OF THE NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 24 FT IMMEDIATELY OFF THE MIAMI COAST BY 12Z WED MORNING BUT ASSUMES A SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST 60 KT...SO BASED ON LATEST ADVISORIES THE FORECAST WILL BUILD SEAS TO ABOUT 20 FT BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE NRN BAHAMAS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 25 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION LATE WED/THU AS ERNESTO EMERGES BACK OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. AFTER ERNESTO DEPARTS THE AREA ON THU...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ERNESTO IS NOW ALMOST ENTIRELY N OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS IN TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A RELATIVELY LIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS 20 KT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN ELY SWELL IN A NARROW SWATH OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...OTHERWISE SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 41W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AND WED AND WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON THE WINDS/SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES AND BRING IT NEAR 13N48W BY SAT...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS WHAT EFFECT ERNESTO MIGHT HAVE ON THE FAR ERN GULF. THE WIND RADII FORECAST IN THE NHC ADVISORY HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA E OF 82W...ESSENTIALLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THIS COULD BE EXACERBATED IF THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER W LATER THIS MORNING. ONE IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THAT THE W SIDE OF ERNESTO WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE E SIDE...SO WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. WILL WAIT FOR 5 AM ADVISORY AND DECIDE ON POSSIBLE E GULF T.S. WARNING THEN...AND WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN WINDS 20-25 KT AS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FOR THE REST OF THE GULF...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE N GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 KT WITH THE FRONT...SO SEAS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE A PROBLEM. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING W OF 77W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG