000 AGXX40 KNHC 280536 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM MON AUG 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... MAJOR IMPACT ON THE DISCUSSION OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL BE TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN 48 HOURS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 60 HOURS ONWARD THROUGH DAY 4. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO INTENSITY SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO HOW THE TERRAIN OF CUBA WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND WHAT REMAINS OF ERNESTO AFTER THE TREK ACROSS THE ISLAND. NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST HERES HOW THE IMPACTS SHAPE UP OVER THE AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA W OF 95W WHERE THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS HAS INCREASED THE SLY WINDS OVER THE AREA TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT AND TUE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREAD OVER THE E GULF ZONE LATE TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS GENERALLY ON WED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU AS ERNESTO MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA COAST. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FRI WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE E ZONE. SW N ATLC... ELY WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLC ZONE AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THREADING THE NEEDLE BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH WED...THEN UP THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE ZONE LATE TUE THROUGH THU. BASED ON THE LATEST 64 KT WIND PROBABILITY SWATH IT APPEARS HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR NOW. SE WINDS PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ELSEWHERE W OF 75W TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED E OF 75W THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCATED JUST OFF THE WRN TIP OF HAITI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW AND MOVE INLAND OVER E CUBA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AS ERNESTO TREKS ACROSS CUBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE WED. OTHERWISE TRADES WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN PICK UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. .WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...S OF 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED...N OF 22N W OF 77W. CARIBBEAN... AMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ086...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED E OF 84W. FORECASTER COBB