000 AGXX40 KNHC 270645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM SUN AUG 27 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW FLORIDA WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W TO 25N92W. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 28N MON AND TUE THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THU. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS N OF 25N W OF 93W WHERE SE-S WINDS ARE 15-20 KT AND OVER THE SW GULF ZONE (GMZ082) S OF 23N WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 15-20 KT. 3-5 FT SEAS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THESE AREAS. UPCOMING FORESEEABLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF BEGINNING MON NIGHT THROUGH THU WILL BE DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE S COAST OF HAITI. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS ERNESTO AS A HURRICANE IN THE VICINITY OF NW CUBA AND THE EXTREME SE GULF WATERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN MOVING NNW ACROSS THE MIDDLE LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN MIND...EXPECT BUILDING E-SE SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS TO AFFECT THE SE GULF MON NIGHT AND THEN THE MIDDLE GULF THROUGH THU. OF COURSE THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORIES. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE W OF 94W AND OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT OR MON MORNING...DECEASING AFTERWARDS. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL GULF ZONES AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER SEAS MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARDS FOR GULF OF MEXICO AREAS AFFECTED BY ERNESTO... ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL AS E-SE SWELL START TO ENTER THE GULF IN MODERATE TO STRONG NE FLOW. SW N ATLC...RIDGE FROM 27N65W EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL LIFT N TO 28N THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE N TO 29N TUE AND WED AND TO 30N BY THU. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL ALLOW FOR ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY S OF 24N E OF 75W THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT W TO S OF 26N W OF 75W MON AND TUE INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WIND SPEEDS....INCLUDING AREAL COVERAGE...OVER THE S PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TO BASED ON HOW THE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXPANDS NWD AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS NW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE CYCLONE TRACK TO THE N WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLC WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0600Z IS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 12 KT. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TRACK WNW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS NEAR E CUBA TONIGHT AND TRACK NEAR THE S CUBAN COAST THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT ENTERS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON TUE. PRESENTLY...ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SQUALLS ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 66W-75W. ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CARIBBEAN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TUE BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. NOAA BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT IN AN E SWELL. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2345 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING S FROM THERE TO NEAR 16N. WILL MOVE THIS WIND AREA WWD THROUGH THE NW ZONE (ZONE 082) IN TANDEM WITH ERNESTO FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN (ZONE 084) HAVE DECREASED...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE E PART WED AND THU. OVER REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL BE NE-E GENERALLY 10-15 KT...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N THROUGH THU WITH SEAS UP TO TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 4 FT MON THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE NE-E 10-15 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (AMZ087) THROUGH THU WITH SOME POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER THE E PART THU AS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE TROPICAL N ATLC. .WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N-18N W OF 71W...AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE