000
AGXX40 KNHC 261704
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM SAT AUG 26 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...E TO W RIDGE ALONG 27N EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND 
DISSECT GULF NE-SW BEGINNING SUN WITH RIDGE AXIS THEN SHIFTING 
SLOWLY NW IN ADVANCE OF CENTER ERNESTO MOVING INTO SE PORTION 
AROUND SUNRISE TUE. THE CURRENT RETURN FLOW OVER THE SW AND W 
CENTRAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MON. BY THEN THE ELY FLOW 
WILL HAVE BACKED TO NE AND INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE SE 
WATERS. I WILL CONSERVATIVELY INCREASE SEAS HEIGHTS ABOVE NWW3 
GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...OF COURSE THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 
ERNESTO IN CARIBBEAN WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH LARGE SEAS ARE 
PUSHED N THRU YUCATAN CHANNEL PRIOR TO ERNESTO ARRIVAL.
   
SW N ATLC ZONE...RIDGE FROM 28N65W TO 27.5N80W WILL SHIFT NW 
REACHING NEAR 30N SUNSET MON THEN SHIFT BACK S TO ALONG 27N WED 
AND THU AS ERNESTO TRACKS INTO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT 
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER WATERS S OF 23N IN 15-20 KT RANGE WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. UNCERTAINTY IS TRACK OF ERNESTO OUTLOOK 
PERIOD AND POSSIBLE RECURVATURE EFFECTING NW ATLC WATERS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 
LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/15Z MOVING W NW OR 285 DEG AT 12 
KT BEHIND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST W OF JAMAICA. 
INCREASED RADIUS 12 FT SEAS...AND THU MAX SEAS...E SEMICIRLCE ON 
15Z ADVISORY TO REFLECT SHIPS V2AD6 AND 6ZXG AND EXTRAPOLATED 8 
FT SEAS W SEMICIRCLE BASED ON BUOY 42058. ONLY SLIGHT 
ADJUSTMENTS TO GFS WINDS REMAINDER AREA EXCEPT REBUILT WIND 
FIELD SW CARIBBEAN BASED ON FORECAST TRACK. 

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 15-20N E OF 80W...AMZ082 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N-18N W OF 69W...AMZ086

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON