000 AGXX40 KNHC 260618 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM SAT AUG 26 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA SW THROUGH 24N88W TO THE SW GULF MAINTAINS CONTROL GULF WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SE-S S OF 27N AND MAINLY S-SW N OF 27N WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SW GULF ZONE (GMZ082) S OF 23N WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 28N SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEAKEN TUE AND WED. A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1016 MB WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF THROUGH MON. UPCOMING FORESEEABLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE MON NIGHT...AND IN THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT REACHING THE MIDDLE WED. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINE STATING EXPECTED HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS FOR BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. EXPECT BUILDING E-SE SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS TO AFFECT THOSE SECTIONS STARTING MON NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AND 15 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 94W THROUGH MON MORNING THEN DECEASE THEREAFTER. WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING WWD 15-20 KT IS NEAR 25N91W. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW HAS DECREASED TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. 00Z NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL GULF ZONES AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO ADJUST SEAS UP SOME FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR THE S CENTRAL AND EXTREME SE GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED. ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE...RIDGE FROM 26N65W EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL LIFT N TO 28N THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE N TO 29N TUE AND WED. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL ALLOW FOR ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY S OF 24N E OF 75W THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT W TO S OF 26N W OF 75W MON AND TUE INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN DECREASE LATE TUE AND WED. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS AND CORRESPONDING SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE BASED ON HOW THE RADII OF THE WIND FILED ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXPANDS NWD AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z IS MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT BEHIND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST W OF JAMAICA. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TRACK WNW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS NEAR NW CUBA MON NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVING INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. PRESENTLY...ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SQUALLS ARE AFFECTING THE E PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CARIBBEAN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2230 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF ERNESTO N OF 14N AND W OF ERNESTO TO 73W. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL MOVE THIS WIND AREA WWD IN TANDEM WITH ERNESTO. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO INDICATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 75W-78W...HOWEVER THIS AREA HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MON...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING SOME TUE AND WED. OVER REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL BE NE-E GENERALLY 10-15 KT...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N THROUGH WED WITH SEAS UP TO TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 4 FT MON AND TUE AND UP TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL WED. WINDS WILL BE E-SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (AMZ087) THROUGH WED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 45W/46W WED. .WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N-18N W OF 66W...AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE