000 AGXX40 KNHC 250632 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM FRI AUG 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA SW TO 24N98W CONTINUES ITS HOLD ON GULF OF MEXICO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ALONG WITH LOW SEA STATE. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE WINDS ARE AT TIMES E-SE 15 KT. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING THEN LIFT BACK N TO ALONG 27N BY SUN AND TO NEAR 28N MON AND TUE. A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1016 MB FORMS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ...HOWEVER WILL TD FIVE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE LATE TUE...WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE EXTREME S GULF WATERS INCLUDING WATERS NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL BEGINNING SUN. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING HEADLINE STATING EXPECTED HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR SE PART LATE TUE. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST THROUGH MON IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES W OF THE GULF...THEN DECREASES TUE. PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N88W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GULF. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING FOR POSSIBILITY OF IT WORKING ITSELF DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FUTURE. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL GULF ZONES AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO ADJUST SEAS UP SOME FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR THE EXTREME SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MAINLY MON AND TUE AS SEAS BUILD IN SWELLS. ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE...RIDGE FROM 26N65W EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT N TO ALONG 29N SAT AND SUN AND LIE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N MON AND TUE. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TD FIVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY S OF 25N E OF 75W THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SPREAD WWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EXTREME SW ATLC INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT THROUGH TUE. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST SPEEDS AND AREAL COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS PENDING STATUS OF TD FIVE OUTCOME IN TERMS OF ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT AFFECTING S PART OF THE SW N ATLC. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.9W AT 25/0300Z IS MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 16 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 12Z THIS MORNING NEAR 13.7N66.2W AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN. PRESENTLY...ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SQUALLS ARE AFFECTING THE E PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO THE W PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CARIBBEAN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS ON ITS CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK. THE TD IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS NEAR 19.5N81.0W MON EVENING. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED AN EXPANDED AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W N OF THE TD. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL MOVE THIS WIND AREA WWD IN TANDEM WITH THE DEPRESSION INCREASING THEN IF DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES AS FORECASTED. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2300 UTC ALSO REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. WILL PROLONGED DECREASE OF THESE WINDS CONTRARY TO WHAT THE LATEST FORECAST ADVERTISES THEN DECREASE THEM TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND TO 15-20 KT SAT AND TO 10-15 KT THEREAFTER. OVER REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL BE NE-E GENERALLY 10-15 KT...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N THROUGH TUE MON WITH SEAS UP TO TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL THROUGH SAT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT SUN AND TO 3 FT MON AND TUE. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 14N-17N W OF 58W WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT CAN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE. .WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 12N-17N W OF 63W...AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE