000
AGXX40 KNHC 240815 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 AM THU AUG 24 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK WESTERN EXTENT OF ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 24N CONTINUES 
TO INFLUENCE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT MORNING THEN LIFT BACK N 
TO ALONG 27N BY SUN AND TO NEAR 28N MON. A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF
1016 MB FORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED IN E WINDS NEAR NW CUBA 
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND MON. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST TODAY THROUGH SAT IN RESPONSE TO LOW 
PRES W OF THE GULF...THEN DECREASES SUN AND MON. REMAINDER
OF GULF WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH 
MON AS SUGGESTED BY NUMERICAL MODELS. ONLY POSSIBLE TO CHANGE
TO CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO WOULD BE IF CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 26N88W
WORKS ITSELF DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS LOW OVER THE NEAR FUTURE
THAT IMPACTS CURRENT WINDS AND SEAS AS NAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAD
BEEN SUGGESTING.

ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE...MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE 
RIDGE FROM 26N65W SW TO S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE RIDGE WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN LIFT N TO ALONG 29N SAT AND 
REFORM N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON AS STRONGER HIGH PRES. E WINDS 
OF 15 KT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO S OF 24N E OF 75W THROUGH 
FRI NIGHT THEN SPREAD WWD TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT THROUGH MON. 
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY BE SEEN OVER WATERS BETWEEN 
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA LATE SAT THROUGH MON AS THE NRN PORTION OF 
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST E OF THE CARIBBEAN BRUSHES 
THAT PORTION OF THE AREA.

IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 
AROUND 2330 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF NE 20-25 KT 
WINDS COVERING MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW CARIBBEAN N OF 
12N E OF 80W. GFS BOUNDARY WIND GUIDANCE BRINGS WINDS DOWN TO 
10-15 KT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE 
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE/LOW 
APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 
ALONG 58W WITH A LOW CENTER NEAR 11N MOVING WNW 17 KT. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY.
FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS SOME FROM THE 
10-15 KT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR N OF 12N IN THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC. CURRENT E CARIBBEAN WINDS OF 20-25 KT FOR W OF 68W LOOK 
GOOD...BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR E OF 
65W MAINLY S OF 16N BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 
THE STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW MAKE HEADWAY THROUGH THE E 
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS UP TO 11 FT MAY BE NOT BE  TOO
FAR FETCHED FOR CARIBBEAN AREA AFFECTED BY THE WAVE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. FOR TRACK PURPOSES OF THIS WAVE...WILL FOLLOW GFS MODEL 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN FOLLOW ECMWFHR/CMC GOING INTO MON. 
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WINDS WILL BE NE-E 
GENERALLY 10-15 KT EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 15-20 KT NEAR WIND 
AREAS RELATED TO THE WAVE/LOW. WINDS WILL BE  LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N THROUGH MON WITH SEAS UP TO TO 6 
FT IN NE SWELL THROUGH SAT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT SUN AND TO 3 FT MON.

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE