000
AGXX40 KNHC 230647
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
245 AM WED AUG 23 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK WESTERN EXTENT OF ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WWD MAINTAIN ITS 
HOLD ON GULF OF MEXICO WIND/SEA CONDITIONS BY MAINTAINING LIGHT
WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THERE. CURRENT BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS IN THE 1-12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
S TO NEAR 25N TONIGHT THROUGH THU WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 
1015 MB FORMING OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MOVES SLIGHTLY SWD THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE 
THEN MOVES BACK N TO ALONG 28N/29N SAT AND SUN WITH ONLY A 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN E WINDS NEAR NW CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST THU 
THROUGH SAT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES W OF THE GULF...THEN 
DECREASES SUN. REST OF GULF WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE 
VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUN AS SUGGESTED BY NUMERICAL MODELS.

ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE...MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
RIDGE ALONG 28N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO 26N THU...AND EXTEND
FROM 28N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FRI THE LIFT 
N TO ALONG 29N SAT AND REFORM FROM N OF THE AREA SUN. E WINDS
OF 15 KT WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 23N THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE
TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT SAT AND SUN AS THE NRN PART OF A STRONG 
TROPICAL WAVE BRUSHES THAT PORTION OF THE AREA.

IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0000 UTC LAST 
NIGHT REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS COVERING MOST 
OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF 80W. 
LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS TEND TO HANG ON TO THESE WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 
2 DAYS LONGER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT 
24 HRS AGO THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KT BY SUN. OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME TODAY THROUGH FRI AND 
FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND TO SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. STRONG TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 50W/51W IS MOVING W 15 KT. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF 
CYCLONIC TURNING MOSTLY IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE...AND THE POTENTIAL NOW EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE CYCLONE 
FORMATION WITH THIS WAVE. WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS SOME FROM 
15-20 KT TO 20-25 KT AND GUSTY WITH SEAS TO 11 FT FOR TROPICAL N 
ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH THU WITH DECREASING 
CONDITIONS THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS SAME WAVE WILL REINFORCE 
STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SAT. GIVEN 
LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS OVER LARGE E FETCH COMPONENT CAN 
EXPECTED SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT MAINLY W OF 70W THU AND 
THU NIGHT...DECREASING TO 10 FT W OF 68W FRI...AND TO 3-5 FT BY 
SUN OVER MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH LINGERING SEAS OF 7 FT IN 
E SWELL OVER SMALL PORTION IN THE NW PART OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE