000
AGXX40 KNHC 191704
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
100 PM SAT AUG 19 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

THE WEAK TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND AND HIGH PRES RIDGE 
IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU. THE GFS AND 
NOGAPS HAVE BACKED OFF IN DEVELOPING A LOW IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE BY MIDWEEK. BOTH ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN A 
TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE E OF THE WAVE.

WEAK LOW PRES IN THE ATLC JUST OFF THE N FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST 
SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT. EARLIER BUOY 
OBSERVATION INDICATED 20 KT WINDS S OF THE LOW...HOWEVER THE 
LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 15 KT. 
OTHERWISE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 28N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MON. WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 
22N/23N TUE THROUGH THU AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA. THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SE WINDS E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

TRADES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE CARIBBEAN S OF 
AROUND 17N E OF 78W. WINDS INCREASE MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE 
STRENGTHENS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE TUE 
AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. SE WINDS 
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

.WARNINGS,

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER DGS