000 AGXX40 KNHC 160613 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM WED AUG 16 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL ALLOWED COOL MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS MOVING WEST OVER THE LOOP CURRENT. THIS ALLOWED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO FORM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EMERGING OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH EVENING QUIKSCAT IMAGERY...SHOW A 1015MB SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 93W. BUOY AND RIG OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF HINT AT A WEAK CLOSED LOW ALONG THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 27N 87W...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE MCS EMERGING OFF THE COAST JUST TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. GFS AND CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CLOSED LOW...WHILE NAM...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW A CLOSED LOW AROUND 1011MB MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SOLUTION...WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES FOR NOW...BUT FEEL WITHOUT UPPER SUPPORT ANY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N60W...THEN TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS THE LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS FAIRLY WELL...AND SHOWS GENERALLY 15 KT FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE. QUIKSCAT ALSO DEFINES THE SFC RIDGE WELL...EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N55W THROUGH 24N75W. FORECAST PLAN IS FOR THE LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE GA/SC COASTS TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PIVOTING N ALONG 26N. GFS SHOWS THE LOW NEAR 29N60W MOVING SLOWLY W THROUGH FRI JUST TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT NOT APPRECIABLY DEVELOPING AND STALLING ALONG 30N65W BY THE WEEKEND. FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST N OF GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W MOVING E AT 15 KT. WINDS SEEM TO BE COMING DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH EVENING QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WILL LOWER WINDS SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT BUT MAINTAIN FRESH ERLY FLOW NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST. GFS DEPICTING CYCLOGENESIS N OF PANAMA AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...AND KEEPS 20 KT FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CARIB WATERS. WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER ERN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WAVE MOVES W...AND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE...NOW CENTERED NEAR 40W. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN