000
AGXX40 KNHC 151849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
245 PM TUE AUG 15 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NWWD TO THE SE 
COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS CONCENTRATING OVER 
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TROUGH MAINLY OVER THE MIDDLE GULF 
WATERS. SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BE DEVELOPING NEAR 27N86W. THE 
NOGAPS/ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW 
PRESSURE WHILE THE GFS/CMC KEEP AN OPEN TROUGH. GIVEN CURRENT 
TRENDS IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS I WOULD PREFER TO 
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS POSED BY THE FIRST SET 
OF MODELS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
WITH THIS FEATURE SEVERAL DAYS AGO GIVEN A STRONG CONVECTIVE 
FEEDBACK SIGNAL. THUS THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A WEAK LOW 
NEAR 27N87W WED MOVING WWD TO NEAR 26N90W THU NIGHT AND NEAR THE 
TEXAS COAST 26N96W BY LATE SAT. RIDGE BUILDS IN SUN FROM THE SW 
N ATLC.     

SW N ATLC...
BROAD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 28N65W WNW TO A LOW NEAR 
31N75W...THEN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N76W
THEN TRAILING AS A WEAK TROUGH SW ACROSS FL STRAITS. LOW NEAR 
31N75W WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW NEAR 28N76W 
DISSIPATES WITH THE BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT 
LIFTING NWD AND DISSIPATING BY LATE THU. BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS 
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
PRESSURE AREAS AND FRONTAL TROUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HIGHER 
WINDS AND SEAS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOWS AND FRONTAL 
TROUGH INTO THU. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FRI AND BECOMES MORE 
ESTABLISHED ALONG 28N BY SUN. THIS ALLOWS SOME 15-20 KT TRADES 
TO FILTER INTO THE FAR SE AREAS NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...   
1100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SOME 
FROM YESTERDAY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH 20-25 KT WINDS 
GENERALLY FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ADDITIONAL AREAS 
OF 20 KT WINDS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
67W. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE 
CARIBBEAN AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS 
THE WAVES PASSES W OF THE AREA WINDS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY OVER 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU THROUGH SUN.  

.WARNINGS...

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB