000 AGXX40 KNHC 150724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM TUE AUG 15 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES 1016 MB IS CENTERED IN THE NW CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING. GENERAL FLOW OFF THE TX COAST IS E TO SE 1O-15 KT ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH. WINDS WERE ALSO REGISTERING UP TO 15 KT AT BUOY 42055 IN THE N BAY OF CAMPECHE...BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S MOVING W THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS S OF 20N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INDICATE 20 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN. MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM S FL TO MS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND GENERALLY FLAT SEAS ARE THE RULE OVER THE ERN GULF. GENERAL MODEL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN GULF WHILE MOVING THE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH FAIRLY WEAK...WHILE NAM AND NOGAPS SPIN UP A LOW BY MID WEEK. FAVOR MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AS ALL MODELS BUILD A RIDGE INTO THE ERN GULF FROM THE SW ATLC BY LATE WEEK. SW N ATLC... SUPPRESSED ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG LINE FROM 24N65W TO STRAITS OF FL. A BROAD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N55W TO A 1013 MB FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 28N61W TO ANOTHER 1012 MB FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 29N74W IN TURN TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH SW ACROSS FL ALONG 26N. QUIKSCAT WINDS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR THE LOW AT 28N61W INDICATE WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KT IN THIS AREA. THE LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING N TO NW TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NOGAPS AND GFS SHOW THIS FEATURE MAKING LANDFALL BY THU. MEANWHILE THE LOW NEAR 28N61W IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVE MOVEMENT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT DISSIPATING EARLY TODAY...AND THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE WRN ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS LIFTS OUT AND THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. S OF THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT ALONG 20 N AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SHIP OBSERVATIONS AT 06Z SHOW 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 64/65W. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO RECENT OBSERVATION OR QUIKSCAT PASSES OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...BUT QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING 15 TO 20 KT FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. WILL FOLLOW GFS KEEPING 20-25 KT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THU. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN