000 AGXX40 KNHC 140528 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON AUG 14 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES 1014 MB W CENTRAL GULF ATTM WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT SLY 10 TO 15 KT IN RETURN FLOW NEAR SE TX COAST. ALSO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED 15 TO 20 KT ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ON E COAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. WAVE PSN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADJUSTED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 21N TODAY AND TUE. OVER THE NE GULF THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLICATED WITH CURRENT RADAR AND NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTING A CONTINUOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL FL NW ACROSS NE WATERS INTO SRN MS...ALL COORDINATED WITH HPC SURFACE DESK. NOTE THAT BOUNDARY WAS SEPARATED EARLIER ON SUN WITH RIDGE OVER CAROLINAS BRIDGING SW INTO THE NE GULF COASTAL PLAINS. MODELS NOW BEGINNING TO SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING TO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SE WATERS TUE...THEN DRIFTING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WED AND THU AND LOSING IDENTITY FRI AS A NEW RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM ATLC ACROSS N FL. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG 26N45W 23N65W TO STRAITS OF FL. A BROAD BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG 31N60W TO 28N65W TO A FRONTAL WAVE LOW 29N75W 1011 MB...IN TURN TRAILING A WEAK COLD SW ACROSS FL ALONG 27N THAT ENHANCED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION SUN EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL DIP JUST A TAD FURTHER S ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE S TO ALONG 28N TODAY AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS SLOWLY NE AND MOVING NE OF AREA TUE NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS SW BRIDGING FRONTAL REMNANTS ALONG 75W. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST BUT FOR NOW I WILL DEPICT JUST ONE LOW PRES ON GRAPHICS...BUT I EXPECT THERE MAY BE MORE CYCLONIC SWIRLS ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK...MAINLY TO E OF 70W. I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF NLY 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW AND FRONT AND SW WINDS 15-20 KT N OF 28N ALONG THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES E THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WILL MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY NE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. GRADIENT ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST AT 20-25 KT WITH A SLIGHT RELAXING ON GRADIENT IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W HAS BEEN MOVING W 12 KT. LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N ALONG THE WAVE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE ATTM AND IT WILL LIKELY SOON BE DROPPED FROM SURFACE ANALYSIS. WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A WAVE IN ERN ATLC ESTIMATED ALONG 26W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 15 KT AND INTO ERN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE FRI. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON