000
AGXX40 KNHC 131746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 PM SUN AUG 13 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES 1017 MB CENTRAL GULF ATTM WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR 
LESS EXCEPT SLY 10 TO 15 KT IN RETURN FLOW W OF 94W. ONLY CHANGE 
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 KT MON NIGHT AND 
TUE AS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 84W MOVES THROUGH THE SRN 
WATERS. OUTLOOK...THE KEY WORD IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS 
UNCERTAIN. NWP MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS CONCERNING A 
WEAK FRONTAL LOW/FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC AREA ATTM. THE 
NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF TAKE A BROAD LOW/TROF OVER FL AND MOVES IT 
WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WED AND DISSIPATES IT IN THE W 
GULF FRI. THE OUTLIER GFS APPEARS TO DO THE SAME BUT CLOSES OFF 
A LOW...POSSIBLY IMPLYING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF WED NIGHT AND DRIVES IT WNW INTO TEXAS BY FRI. THE GFS 
SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW AND AS SUCH THE FORECAST BUILDS 
AROUND A WWD MOVING TROUGH WITH NE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE 
BEHIND THE TROUGH. 

SW N ATLC...
WEAK ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG 25N TO STRAITS OF FL WITH AN E-W 
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 
29N78W. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP FURTHER S ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE 
S AND EXTEND FROM 29N65W TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW BY LATE 
MON. WITHIN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS 
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN SPINNING UP A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE 
AREA. THE GFS/CMC SPIN UP A LOW AND DRIVE IT NWD TOWARD THE 
CAROLINAS WHILE THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/UKMET/NAM TURN THE SYS MORE 
TOWARD THE WNW TOWARD N FLORIDA. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AS
IT CRANKS THE LOW UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF SORTS. WILL 
LEAN TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND EDGE LOW TOWARD 
FLORIDA WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF THE LOW/FRONT AND LIGHTER 
SW WINDS S OF THE LOW. OUTLOOK...REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH 
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BISECTS THE AREA WITH NLY WINDS W OF 
THE TROUGH AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH THROUGH FRI. THIS 
REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AS
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY 
HERE WITH ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.    
 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT INDICATED SWATH OF 20-25 KT TRADES OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 70W EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W WILL MOVE THROUGH GULF OF 
HONDURAS TONIGHT/EARLY MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W HAS 
BEEN MOVING W 10-12 KT. LOW PRES AT 13N ALONG WAVE ACCOMPANIED 
BY SOME CONVECTION ATTM WITH QUIKSCAT INDICATING ONLY 20 KT 
WINDS OVER NRN SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. LOW/WAVE WILL TREK INTO THE E 
CARIBBEAN  WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS. WAVE CONTINUES 
INTO SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. 

.WARNINGS...

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB