000
AGXX40 KNHC 130551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 AM SUN AUG 13 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES 1014 MB CENTRAL GULF ATTM WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 
EXCEPT SLY 10 TO 15 KT IN RETURN FLOW W OF 93W. WINDS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO 15 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS 
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 81W MOVES W 12 KT THROUGH THE SRN 
WATERS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF E 
COAST CONUS THROUGH MIDDLE OF WEEK PUSHING A WEAK FRONT S INTO 
SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. I EXPECT THE ATLC RIDGE 
WILL EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FL TO NE TX MON...THEN SHIFT S LYING 
E-W ALONG 24N TUE ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH TO SLIP S INTO NE 
WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S TO ALONG 23N E OF 85W 
WED AS THE TROUGH DIGS SW EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FL TO 23N88W 
WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE SW GULF. MODELS REALLY DIFFER BY 
DAY 5...NAM AND UKMET TAKE TROUGH E WHILE GFS AND NOGAPS MOVE 
THE TROUGH W. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION LATTER PERIODS. 

SW N ATLC...
ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG 25N50W 24N70W TO STRAITS OF FL WITH A  
WEAK AND BROAD BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 31N TO 
THE W OF 63W. THE RIDGE WILL DIP A LITTLE FURTHER S ALLOWING THE 
FRONT TO MOVE S TO ALONG 28N MON. MODELS ALL SPINNING UP SEVERAL 
FRONTAL WAVE LOWS...ALL OF VARIOUS STRENGTHS...ALONG THE FRONT. 
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME CYCLONIC SWIRLS AND WILL LEAN ON GUN 
SOLUTION FOR AN AVERAGE PSN AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST 
CYCLONIC WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER NRN SEMICIRCLE OF FRONTAL LOWS. 
ONE LOW WILL MOVE E ALONG FRONT THROUGH DAY 4 AND 5 WHILE 
ANOTHER WILL WILL LIE OFF NE FL TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH SW ACROSS 
FL INTO GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIDGE THROUGH FRONTAL 
REMNANTS TUE NIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG 70W...SEPARATING THE 
CYCLONES...THEN STRENGTHEN WED AND THU. MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN ALL 
OF THIS AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST 
THIS COMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...   
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W WILL MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS MON 
ACCOMPANIED BY NE-SE 20 KT WIND SHIFT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W 
HAS BEEN MOVING W 12 KT. LOW PRES AT 12N ALONG WAVE QUITE 
CONVECTIVE ATTM BUT SHIP A8HJ8 AND BUOYS 41101 AND 41040 
INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ONLY ABOUT 20 KT OVER NRN SEMICIRCLE OF 
LOW. I WILL MOVE WAVE AND LOW TOGETHER FOR ABOUT 30 HOURS AS 
THE LOW WILL TRACK W UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE. BY 48 HOURS I 
DROP LOW PRES FROM PROGS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM UPPER RIDGE AND 
ALSO IT LOSES IDENTITY ON GFS. WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SW CARIBBEAN 
THU. WAVE IN ERN ATLC ESTIMATED ALONG 17W EXPECTED TO MOVE W 12 
KT FOR NOW...WITH PSN STILL WELL E OF DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 40W 
LATE THU.

.WARNINGS...

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON