000
AGXX40 KNHC 121728
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM SAT AUG 12 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A DISSIPATING 
1015 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR FORT MYERS FL. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 
INDICATING WINDS 10 KT OR LESS E OF 94W AND 10 TO 15 KT W OF 
94W. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 KT IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 
76W MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY 
LESS THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN THE MEANTIME 
HIGH PRESS RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 25N WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESS CENTERED OVER 
THE GULF RESULTS IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 
OF A FOOT OR LESS. 

SW N ATLC...
ATLC RIDGE IS RATHER SUPPRESSED FOR AUGUST AND IS SITUATED ALONG 
25N WITH AN E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA. THE 
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES IS ALLOWING W-SW WINDS OF 20-25 
KT TO EXTEND AS FAR S AS 27N WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS N OF 29N IN 
AREA OF TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP 
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXTEND ALONG 30N65W 29N75W 31N80W BY
LATE SUN AND ALONG 28N65W 29N72W 30N80W BY MON NIGHT. NWP MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA WITH 
THE DIFFERENCES BEING AS TO HOW FAR INTO THE AREA THE FRONT SAGS 
AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO 
RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF 
THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS POSITION OF THE FRONT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 
TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...WAVY
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N TUE AND LOFTS NWD TO ALONG 30N WED AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE THU AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE AREA.   

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...   
1028 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MODERATE TRADES OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS NOTED IN THE AREA S OF 
17N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. LITTLE TURNING NOTED IN THE QUIKSCAT 
DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 76W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE 
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND W OF THE AREA BY SUN 
NIGHT/EARLY MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 52W 
WILL WILL MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN THEN 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. THE LATTER WAVE SHOULD 
INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS TO 20+ KT WHICH WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE NIGHT AND E-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI.   

.WARNINGS...

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB