000
AGXX40 KNHC 021715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
115 PM WED AUG 02 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

TS CHRIS NEAR 19N63W MOVING 300/9 KT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
STRENGTHEN TO HURCN TONIGHT AND TRACK WLY ACROSS SRN WATERS SW N 
ATLC THROUGH E AND MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO ZONES DURING OUTLOOK 
PERIOD...WARNINGS POSTED. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER W TX IS STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR SE UPPER 
FLOW OVER W GULF OF MEXICO WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER E TN CONTROLS E FLOW ALOFT...TO THE 
N OF 28N BETWEEN 95W-70W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER OLD 
MEXICO NEAR 20N105W RIDGES E OVER W BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT A 
SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 23N91W...SHIFTING W WITH TIME. 
THUS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY NE-E OVER GULF OF MEXICO E OF 
90W AND E-SE W OF 90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WRN GULF WATERS 
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH NRN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING 
W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER THE UPPER 
RIDGE.
  
THE CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLC AT 26N77W IS NOW 
MOVING W AS EXPECTED. GFS MOVES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DUE W TO PSN 
IN ERN TX ON MON WHILE NOGAPS FILLS CYCLONE OVER E GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REPLACING THE CYCLONE...PERHAPS 
DUE TO TC CHRIS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS UPPER CYCLONE WILL PLAY 
MAJOR PART IN STEERING OF TC CHRIS. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NRN ATLC AREA ALONG 32N50W 
27N60W. AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON TPC 12Z 
SURFACE ANALYSIS...32N67W 28N71W AND MENTIONED IN HSF WITH SMALL 
AREA WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON W OF 65W...THUS NO MENTION IN OFFNT3.

A WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 22N68W WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY CONTINUING TO SHRINK IN 
SIZE...CURRENTLY FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 69W AND 61W. E OF THIS 
RIDGE...A CENTRAL ATLC TUTT IS ABOUT TO BE OVERRUN BY THE 
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IS STILL EVIDENT THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES 
AT 38N32W AND 21N50W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO LIE E TO W BETWEEN 27-28N ACROSS THE ATLC AND N FL INTO SE AL 
THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT TO 30N SAT AND 31N SUN AND 32N MON.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W OF ARE LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE W BAY OF CAMPECHE 
INTO SUNSET.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE WAVE THAT SPAWNED TS CHRIS...CONTINUES W 
THROUGH THROUGH S AMERICA ALONG 75W...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION S 
OF 9N...BUT LITTLE SIGNATURE IN CARIBBEAN OBSERVATIONS. PRES 
GRADIENT SUPPORTING ELY 20-25 KT SEAS TO 11 FT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC 
WATERS AROUND SUNRISE SAT AND THROUGH E CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. 
GFS CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT... 
AND THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE THAT IS DOES DEVELOP SEEMS TO LAG BACK 
CONSIDERABLY E OF EXPECTED TROPICAL WAVE PSN...THUS DIFFICULT TO 
FORECAST WIND FIELD ON GRAPHICS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E 50W.
   
.WARNINGS...
ATLC...HURCN WARNING AMZ087 AND AMZ080. CARIBBEAN...NONE...BUT 
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TS CHRIS JUST NE OF ZONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON