000 AGXX40 KNHC 011629 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM TUE AUG 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TS CHRIS NEAR 17N60W MOVING 295/9 KT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 50 KT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH NW TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THROUGH WED AND THROUGH SE PORTION SW N ATLC ZONE...BAHAMAS ISLANDS..WED THROUGH SAT ACROSS S FL SUN INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO MON. UPPER CYCLONES...OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 26N101W AND OVER MS NEAR 31N87W BOTH SHIFTING SLOWLY W WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS DRIFTING W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ESTIMATED NEAR 19.6N95.3W ATTM...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE FL BIG BEND AT 29N83W AND RIDGING S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME COMPLICATED AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE OVER MS MOVING SLOWLY W. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ELY WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE MEXICAN YUCATAN ATTM. THE CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLC AT 25N72W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 21N74W. AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON TPC 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MENTIONED IN HSF AND OFFNT3 WITH SMALL AREA WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO HAS ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN SIZE... CURRENTLY FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 56W. E OF THIS RIDGE IS A TUTT WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 31N43W THROUGH A CYCLONE AT 22N54W TO JUST N OF TS CHRIS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS NOW BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY W ACROSS SRN FL/STRAITS OF FL INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL SHIFT WEAK RIDGING...MORE LIKE AN UPPER COL REGION...W AND SORT OF IN-PHASE WITH THE TS...ALLOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. OF MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE THE EXPANDING TS FORCE WIND FIELD AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIE E TO W BETWEEN 27-28N ACROSS THE ATLC AND N FL INTO SE AL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT AND WILL MOVE W UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE. EXPECT CONTINUED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FLARE IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH EARLY WED. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE WAVE THAT SPAWNED TS CHRIS...CONTINUES W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W. FORECAST WAVE PSN AREA 76W WED...82W THU...87W FRI... 93W SAT. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ELY 20-25 KT SEAS TO 11 FT. A WAVE ALONG 32W EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS LATE FRI AND E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS...I HAVE CONTINUED THE EXTENDED FORECAST OF ELY GRADIENT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FRI/SAT. .WARNINGS... ATLC...TS WARNING AMZ087...CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ080. CARIBBEAN...NONE...CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TS CHRIS JUST NE OF ZONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON