000 AGXX40 KNHC 311626 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1210 PM FRI JUL 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER CYCLONES ARE NOTED NEAR 25N101W...27N94W AND 32N81W ALL SHIFTING SW WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18.5N94W WHILE ANOTHER IS DISSIPATING OVER THE N GULF COAST AT 31N88W. THUS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY NE TO E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NE WATERS. ANOTHER CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE W ATLC AT 26N73W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 20N72W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N63W HAS ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 58W. E OF THIS RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N52W TO 17N58W. AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MENTIONED IN TEXT AND DEPICTED ON GRAPHICS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GFS AND NOGAPS NOW BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY WNW ACROSS SRN FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN TURN WILL SHIFT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE W TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIE E TO W BETWEEN 27-28N ACROSS THE ATLC AND N FL INTO SE AL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER MEXICO AND THE E PAC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT UNDER W AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 89W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE IN BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 93W TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS SEPARATED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE W ABOUT 15 KT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. I WILL MOVE THE TROUGH NW ABOUT 15 KT INITIALLY THROUGH...OR JUST NE OF...THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THEN SLOW IT TO 12 KT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE BAHAMAS THU AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI AND IF IT SURVIVES NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS SAT. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FLARE INTERMITTENTLY...SOMETIMES WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS BANDING...BUT THE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER DRY AIR AND NHC IS NOT EXPECTING ANY RAPID TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON