000
AGXX40 KNHC 300459
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM SUN JUL 30 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

THE MAIN MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER SE TX WITH AN EWD 
EXTENSION TO 27N50W. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD EXISTS 
BETWEEN 35W AND 50W OVER THE ERN ATLC TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN 
THE WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE SE US COAST TONIGHT MOVING SE. ON 
THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAKENED ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG 27N WITH A 
1019 MB CENTER NEAR 27N70W. TROPICAL WAVES WERE LOCATED NEAR 
49W..70W AND 88W MOVING W APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. WHILE ALL WERE 
ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NONE SHOWED ANY ORGANIZATION.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE 
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST. ON THE SURFACE MAP THE ATLC 
RIDGE WILL DRIFT S TO ALONG 26N AND EXTEND WWD TO THE N CENTRAL 
GULF. MODERATE TRADES WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W 
AND 80W..ELSEWHERE WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. 

FOR DAY 2 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP N OF 30N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SE 
TO N FL. MID LEVEL RIDGES HOLD FIRM ALONG 90W AND NEAR 25N65W AS 
WELL AS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC. A WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 
40W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 SWLY WINDS INCREASE SOME ON 
THE N SIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE HOLDS 
ALONG 25N WITH A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 25N60W. SOME SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN SLY WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF DAY 2 AS PRESSURES FALL 
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE E OF 75W.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

ON DAY 3 THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM 
OVER THE SE US WHILE THE WESTERLIES MAKE ENROADS S OF 30N 
BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL 
PUNCH INTO THE ATLC RIDGE ALONG 53W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF 
IT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH A 1022 MB CENTER 
NEAR 25N63W. MODERATE SLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF AND 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB.

FOR DAY 4 THE OLD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS ON THE S SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE 
SE US. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE SUBTROPICS WITH A 
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE A TROUGH WILL MOVE TO 50W 
SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN ATLC WSW TO 
A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 26N63W THEN WNW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. 
WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WEAKEN DAY 4 WHILE CARIB WINDS REMAIN 
ABOUT THE SAME. 

DAY 5 FINDS A LARGE SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN US 
ESE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO 25N30W. A WEAKENING MID LEVEL 
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ALONG 45W WHILE THE CLOSED WEAK MID 
LEVEL LOW MOVES NW TO JUST OFF THE FL E COAST.  ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 5 THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC DISSIPATES WHILE 
THE ATLC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE FROM DAY 4. THE OVERALL WIND 
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE EXCEPT FOR ERN CARIB WINDS BECOMING MORE 
SELY AS A TRPL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG