000 AGXX40 KNHC 291544 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM FRI JUL 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W AND IS MOVING SW WITH TIME. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W...MOVING W AND FILLING RAPIDLY. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL LA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST THAT HAS COLLAPSED SE TO NEAR 34N73W. THUS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY NE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLC TUTT HAS SHIFTED W AS EXPECTED AND NOW EXTENDS THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 36N53W AND 24N74W WITH A TROUGH S TO BASE AT 18N80W. THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS ILL-DEFINED ATTM...AND ESTIMATED NEAR 26N65W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 19N63W. ANOTHER TUTT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC ROUGHLY FROM 28N32W TO 19N60W. THE GFS AND NOGAPS BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE DRIFTING N OR NW TO REACHING A MEAN CENTER NEAR 28N80W LATE WED. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SE CONUS WHILE THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SQUEEZED N-S ALONG 70W AS THE CENTRAL ATLC TUTT SHIFTS WESTWARD. AT THE LOW LEVELS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES E TO W ALONG 29N ACROSS THE ATLC AND N FL INTO CENTRAL AL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N SUN AND ALONG 27N MON THROUGH THU. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING ELY 20-25 KT FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 75W-55W THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MAINTAINING AN ELY 15-20 KT WIND THROUGHOUT TROPICAL DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO UPPER CYCLONE...WITH CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE WAVE UNDER THE DIFFLUENT E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE THEY ARE BOTH SHIFTING W EXPECTING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO SHIFT W OF AREA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IS MOVING W ABOUT 17 KT UNDER LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR CONVECTION. BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS W CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WATERS WITH WAVE AXIS MOVING W OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND SUNSET MON. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING W OF THE FAVORABLE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N63W. INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD DECREASE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WAVE PSN...72W SUN...77W MON...83W TUE...87W WED AND MOVING THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR 8N50W CONTINUES TO RACE WSW TOWARDS THE S AMERICAN COAST. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...NEAR 8.5N44W AT 12Z THIS MORNING...IDENTIFIES THE TRUE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. A FEW CLUSTERS FLARED OVER THE SW QUAD OF THE CYCLONE EARLIER BUT HAVE SINCE WARMED. EXPECT THIS SURFACE LOW TO MOVE WNW 16 KT THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 14N SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUED IN TEXT AND GRAPHICS. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON