000
AGXX40 KNHC 290507
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM SAT JUL 29 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A DRY MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE SUBTROPIC ATLC 
TONIGHT E OF 60W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS W ALONG 30N TO A NEW CENTER 
OVER THE NW GULF. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS OVER 
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT MOVING SE. TROPICAL EASTERLIES ARE 
CONFINED TO S OF 24N. ON THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 31N57W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WSW ALONG 30N OVER THE N GULF 
COAST. TROPICAL WAVES WERE LOCATED ALONG 41W..62W AND 79W MOVING 
W APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC WILL BRUSH 
ALONG THE MARINE NRN BORDER AT 50W. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL 
MOVE TO THE PEDEMONT OF THE CAROLINAS..BLOCKED BY THE SPRAWLING 
MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 30N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC 
RIDGE WEAKENS TO 1022 MB WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 30N. MODERATE 
TRADES ARE CONFINED TO S OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 80W. GULF WINDS 
ARE MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 THE WESTERLIES PERSIST IN TRYING TO MAKE ENRODES S OF 
30N WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE 
MID ATLC BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS WILL BE 
LOCATED OVER ERN TX AND ANOTHER NEAR 28N66W. ON THE SURFACE THE 
ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES IT'S WEAKENING TREND WITH A 1019 MB CENTER 
NEAR 28N65W AND THE AXIS ALONG 27N WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 
GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND MODERATE TRADES ARE CONFINED TO S OF 
23N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD... 

ONE LONE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25N65W DAY 3 WILL 
BE LEFT TO BLOCK THE STRONG WESTERLIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO 
CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE OTHER 
BLOCKING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US ALONG 90W. ON 
THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE DRIFTS S TO ALONG 25N WITH A 1021 MB 
CENTER NEAR 25N60W AND IT'S AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL 
DAY 3. SW AND W WINDS N OF 30N INCREASE SOME AS FRONTS N OF THE 
REGION BEGIN TO BRUSH BY. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE TRADES 
BECOME MORE SELY BETWEEN 60W AND 80W S OF 23N.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLC DAY 4 MAINLY N 
OF 30N. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ERN US HOLDS FIRM BUT A WEAK 
MID LEVEL LOW FIRMS OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH NE 
OF THE LEEWARDS IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES DAY 4 MOVING 
SLOWLY WNW. ON THE SURFACE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST THE ATLC 
RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH AT 1022 MB NEAR 25N62W 
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE NW GULF. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WINDS FROM DAY 3.

DAY 5 FINDS THE WESTERLIES BACKING OFF AND MOVING MORE EASTERLY. 
A LARGE SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SE US WITH 
THE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING TO THE NE GULF. THE INVERTED 
TROUGH NE OF THE ISLANDS MOVES TO NEAR 24N58W. ON THE SURFACE A 
WEAKLY DEFINED ATLC RIDGE CENTER AT 1022 MB REMAINS NEAR 25N64W 
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WNW TO THE NE GULF. GULF WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT WHILE TRADES BECOME MORE ELY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB. 
   
.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG