000
AGXX40 KNHC 271714
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM THU JUL 27 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. 
THE ERN MOST UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE E COAST OF N AMERICA 
EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO BASE NEAR 28N83W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER EXTREME NE TX IS RAPIDLY LOSING IDENTITY 
BUT STILL HAS ITS RIDGE NE CRESTING OVER AL WITH THE UPPER FLOW 
RETURNING SW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED E 
OF THE SHORTWAVE NEAR 32N63W HAS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 30N74W...AND 
THIS SYSTEM IS LOSING IDENTITY AS WELL. A TUTT DOMINATES THE WRN 
ATLC EXTENDING SW THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 33N56W...28N66W AND 
19N87W. THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W BASICALLY SEPARATING THE 
STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE CONUS FROM THE 
SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD WSW TO THE SE BAHAMAS 
FRI. THE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW TO NEAR THE NE 
CARIBBEAN SAT...THEN DRIFT W TO NEAR HISPANIOLA BY MON..AND 
CONTINUE W THROUGH TUE ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SE 
INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.    

AT THE LOW LEVELS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES E TO W ALONG 30N.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN 
TO SHIFT S REACHING ALONG 28N SUN AND 27N MON...AND THEN BACK N 
TO ALONG 28N TUE. SLY 15-20 KT WINDS SEAS TO 8 FT SW OF RIDGE 
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DECREASE LATE FRI. OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN...ELY WINDS IN 20 KT RANGE WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI 
NIGHT THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN ON TUE.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE 
W 15 KT THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. CONVECTION IS FLARING 
ALONG 20N BUT THE INCREASING NE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION TONIGHT AND 
FRI.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS SLIPPING W UNDER THE TUTT WITH A 
CLASSIC CONVECTIVE BLOWUP OCCURRING NEAR 21N70W...AND OTHER 
ENHANCED CLUSTERS OVER THE E AND S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS 
APPARENTLY LIKES THIS CONVECTION AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS A DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE ATLC WATERS 25N70W. 
I WILL BACK OFF ON MENTION OF THIS FOR NOW. 
  
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W HAS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. I 
WILL MOVE THIS WAVE W AT 15 KT ON GRAPHICS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 15 
KT...SHOULD REACH 55W MON NIGHT.
   
.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON