000
AGXX40 KNHC 241702
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM MON JUL 24 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TEXAS FROM NE TO SW 
LEAVING ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IN MOIST SIDE WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT HAS DEVELOPED PLENTY OF CONVECTION W OF 90W.  SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG MEXICO COASTAL WATERS PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPLIFT TO 
WHAT HAS BECOME NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS WITH REPORTED SFC GUST TO 
45 KT AT BUOY 42055.  CONDITIONS DRIFTING NW AND CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST 24-36 MORE HRS.  

REMAINDER OF GULF UNDER WELL ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH 
DENIED ABOVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRY INTO GULF.  MOST OF ERN 
GULF APPEARS DRY EXCEPT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FLOWING E-NE N OF 
29N.  CREST OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW QUITE SUPPRESSED ALONG 79W 
ENTER GULF TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INTO LESS 
ADVERSE UPPER CONDITIONS.  IT IS LIKELY TO KICK ANOTHER ROUND OF 
CONVECTION FOR SRN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO. 

CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER EXTENDED RIDGE UMBRELLA HAS LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE EXCEPT OVER EXTREME WRN PART WHERE MASS CONFLUENCE 
AGAINST TERRAIN HAS PROMPTED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA COAST.  GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG NORTHERN COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA SUPPLIES MOISTURE AROUND SOUTH PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE.  TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W SUPPLIES UPLIFT MECHANISM.
ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN REMAINS WINDY BUT DRY.  
  
GALE FORCE WIND WARNING EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO TUE TILL ATLC 
SFC RIDGE DECIDES TO MOVE N AND EASE GRADIENT...IT WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN WINDY...BUT UNDER GALE FORCE.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 65W-66W UNDER RIDGE WITH SUPPRESSED 
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W 15 KT.  NEXT WAVE NOW E OF 
AREA ALONG 44W SHOULD ENTER TRPCL ATLC BY WED.  EMBEDDED LOW 
PRES NOW AT 14N44W FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT 24 HRS...BUT CHANCE 
OF HOLDING ON AS UPPER ENVIRON BECOMES LESS HOSTILE.  GFS AND 
NOGAPS DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 48 HRS BUT CANADIAN KEEPS IT ALIVE 
THRU 72 HRS.  POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER ENVIRONMENT MIGHT 
NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW PRES ALIVE IF CONDITIONS REMAIN AS DRY 
AS PRESENTLY. 

.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...GALE WARNING TILL 26/00Z...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. 
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES